Major East Coast Storm Definite: The Final Forecast

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BACKED OFF ON THE THREAT OF A MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EVERY MAJOR OPERATIONAL WEATHER MODEL IS NOW ON BOARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH FLIGHT RECONNAISSANCE HAS BEEN OBSERVING AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORETASTED TO INTENSIFY MORE AS IT TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND ALL DAY TOMORROW. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SOUTH JERSEY, BALTIMORE, WASHINGTON WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND RAIN THEN CHANGE BACK TO SNOW TOWARDS END OF EVENT. TO THE NORTH AND WEST THIS IS A HEAVY SNOW EVENT WITH ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 OF 12-18 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY THURSDAY AS HEAVY SNOW ARRIVES AND GUST UP TO 50 MPH. ALONG WITH THE HEAVY SNOW THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL CONDITIONS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE ALL DAY ON THURSDAY. THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT WILL BE CLOSE TO 24 HRS FROM START TO FINISH AS THE STORM WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE THE STRONGEST STORM OF THE SEASON BY FAR AND HAS THE MAKINGS OF A CLASSIC.

Detailed play by play video:

My going forecast:

Notes: I extended 6-12 into northeastern NJ. The 5-10 will be toward the lower end the further south and east you go in that shaded region

Updates and commentary today on twitter @weatherwilly. Next blog update will be tonight along with live footage to follow.