Friday Evening Update: A Real Nail-Bitter

The smallest details make such a big difference making this an extremely hard forecast. Details in video below. Updated map tomorrow morning, I am not ready to change anything yet. 

Friday Morning: The Drama Continues

This mornings discussion is focused on the model trends last night and the impact they could have on my preliminary snowfall forecast released yesterday. Overall I would say the trend was colder last night. Although I can tell you now a storm is extremely likely and accumulating snow will be observed by everyone, the finer details of where the heaviest snow will be are whats challenging. I am sticking with my map as of now however. 

Peliminary Forecast for Sunday into Monday's Winter Storm

This is a preliminary forecast meaning it is subject to change. This is my best estimate on what will happen with Sunday into Monday's winter storm based on everything I have looked at. Obviously I hope I do not have to change much, but I will know by the weekend how accurate this forecast will be. 

In any event, a significant winter storm is going to impact our region and I have details in the video below. 

Wednesday Eve Discussion: Looking at Model Trends

I will put out my first prediction tomorrow AM, but for now I wanted to show why this is such a tough forecast. This could literally end up being a couple inches or a couple of feet. 

Wed Morning: The Hype Begins

So now you are prob hearing on the news storms, more storms and rumors of storms particularity for this Monday. This is all the result of the pattern change that I have been reviewing with you on this blog that will last through mid March. The video below takes a look at the storm threat for Monday and why its still too early to jump the gun on the exact details. 

Tuesday Weather Discussion: Overview of Next 10 Days

The Polar Vortex Actually Defends Our Area From Big Storm!

The title says it all, my forecast for Wednesday will bust because of the strength of the polar vortex. What I mean is it is squashing any southern disturbances out to sea and preventing amplification of the Jet Stream along the east coast that a storm could ride up. This does not mean however that it will not feel like winter. Temperatures will plummet this week due to the vortex.  

The fact we are missing out on Wednesday does NOT mean I am backing off on my original ideas discussed last week. The pattern is very active and once this polar vortex retreats a little (beginning of next week) all of the energy that is currently on the field will try to get its act together and produce a storm somewhere in the eastern 1/3. The video below discusses these thoughts.

My Forecast for Wednesday's Storm System

The time has come for me to make a forecast for what I think will happen Wednesday. When I started this blog the purpose was to give advanced notice to potential storm development and the reason behind why I thought they would occur. In some cases this means I will end up being wrong, but I much rather make a real forecast than just wait till the last second and Nowcast when every model is in agreement. 

So lets talk about Wednesday. Right now I am forecasting a moderate to potentially significant snowfall event for the Mid Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Do I have model agreement? Absolutely not, in fact every models is out to sea except for the European which is just off shore. Now this is not just me wishcasting let me explain why I think this event will occur. 


We are going to see a major pattern change next week. Take a look at the cold arctic air in place over our region just ahead of this storm system as seen by the cooler colors...(all images can be clicked to make bigger)

This is the result of an arctic high pressure system in place over our region at this time. Just to our south over the Gulf States notice the warm air. This boundary between warm and cold air creates what is called a baroclinic zone. Storms usually like to form on these gradients between warm and cold air and you can clearly see that is present ahead of the storm on Wednesday. 

Now lets look at the jet stream structure for this time period. I am using the European model because it has been extremely consistent in its last few runs...

We have a few ingredients here that are important to look at. For one we have a ridge of high pressure in the west. This causes the jet stream to rise in that region which results in the jet stream sinking over our area. This brings in the cold air. You also have a Negative NAO which is the high pressure system seen over Greenland (orange color) which sharpens trough over our area. To add, you have a low pressure center located around 50 North 50 West which historically has been a big precursor to east coast storms. This 50/50 low basically helps drive the storm up the coast as opposed to out to sea. So now that the foundation is laid, we need energy to form a storm. Lets take a look at where the energy is expected to be.

There are two clear disturbances in the jet stream in the image above. You have a very sharp disturbance coming off the northern branch of the jet stream and also a lot of sub tropical moisture flooding into the southern part of the country as seen on the bottom circle. The 1 million dollar question is do these two disturbances combine in the right spot to spawn a decent storm. We already know we have the other factors discussed above in place. So now it all comes down to timing.

This is where I am using my experience from watching storms develop all winter and how the modeling has handled them. There are a few things I want to point out:

1. This is a Miller A type storm. Miller A storms develop near the Gulf of Mexico and come up the coast. I have noticed that the European model this winter has handled these types of low pressure systems the best compared to the GFS and even the Canadian. There has been very good consistency with the European model in the last few runs which are all showing a moderate snow event. 

2. Most models have underestimated the strength and how far south the northern disturbances have dug all winter. The reason the GFS is taking this storm out to sea is it keeps the northern energy flatter which means it does not dig enough to combine with the southern energy. I believe this is an error. 

3. The Northern energy has not even hit land yet. It is still out in the Arctic Sea.. Weather models are based on data inputs. The data sampling is scarce out in the open water. It is my opinion that once this northern energy hits land up in Northwest Canada tomorrow night the models will begin to get a better handle on this system and correct in line with my ideas. 

So when it is all said and done I expect a moderate storm to develop Wednesday and potentially become significant. If when the energy hits land tomorrow the models start to catch on to my ideas, I will give snowfall estimates if necessary. 

In any event even if this forecast ends up busting, it will become brutally cold by the end of next week. Heading into march that split flow in the Jet Stream I discussed in my Video Sunday will be come even more prominent giving us more shots at winter storms. I mentioned on twitter yesterday that all leading climate indicators are showing this can be a brutal March. In fact even if we had little snow so far this winter I would be saying now that March has the opportunity to fill that gap. 

That's all for now. 

Quick Friday Night Remark: More This Weekend

Very busy, just got back from office now heading to dinner. Here is a quick remark about next week. Model trends look good and as I mentioned this is a forecast period where trends are important. This is all part of the evolving pattern I discussed beginning of this week.

Friday Video Discussion: Taking a Look at Last Night's Model Runs for Next Week

Not ready to jump on any one scenario yet. Right now we just know a lot of energy is on the field next week which can combine to form a storm or two. This pattern will persist into the 1st week of March. It is still too early to take a stance on if I think Wed-Thursday system will materialize. We need to wait for better data sampling from the models.  I go through the latest model trends in the video. I will most likely make a prediction on this sometime over the weekend. 

Wed Night Discussion: Rocking and Rolling Into Next Week

Enjoy the warm up this weekend because the cold returns and it returns with a vengeance next week. Will we see a storm(s) develop? I discussion the potential in this focused video discussion below. 

Can Not Ignore Upcoming Weather Pattern

The pattern heading into March really has my attention. After this quick warm up end of the week, its game on. I show the reasons why in my new video. Consider this a follow up to Sunday nights video with a little more clarity.

Snowfall Map for Tomorrow Morning

Snow spreads in early in the morning gone by Noon. Surface temps marginal so amounts not as robust unless you live in higher elevations. 

I am still very impressed with the pattern heading into March. All the ingredients are there for another active period in the east. I will continue to provide insight on this as the days go by.

Sunday Night Pattern Discussion: Taking a Look at the Long Range

Many of you want to know is winter over. I discuss my thoughts on that subject in the video below. In addition, we will see light snow tomorrow night into Tuesday with a few inches of accumulation possible. 

2-4 Locally 5

That's my call for today as you can see on twitter. Snow spreads into area soon lasts until tonight. More light to moderate snow on Monday night into Tuesday. I will have a detailed pattern update video probably later this afternoon or tomorrow. Be sure to tune in.  Winter is not over early this year it looks like. A false spring is coming end of next week. 

What a Storm: Summary and Totals Compared to Forecast

What a storm it was especially since it was largely under forecasted. I'll save that subject for another time. Here was my original forecast put out Monday that was not changed:

The latest snowfall reports (some areas did not update yet this morning):

Bright pink is over a foot. White spots are two feet. I counted about 15" including sleet in western Morris County. I was under on amounts for some areas near Del and Baltimore. But overall you guys be the judge. 

Time for work...we have more snow on the way Saturday. I'll be on twitter with updates on that and prob have a post sometime tonight with more detailed breakdown. 

1030 PM Update: The Last Sprint

Updates will continue on twitter until later tonight. Summary of the storm tomorrow morning along with a closer look at the system for the weekend.

Halftime Update: The Deformation Zone Can Produce Heavy Snow Banding Tonight

10:30 Footage: Very Heavy Snow

Live Footage: Snowing Hard in Morris County

Early Morning Update: Storm is Really Cranking Up Now

We are underway in northern counties now and snow will only increase in intensity through early afternoon. To our south in Baltimore Washington some areas at already crossing the 1 ft mark and we will not be far behind. Snowfall rates of up to 2 inches an hour will occur making travel extremely difficult if not impossible at times. Total accumulations of 1-2 feet in most areas. Sleet will still mix in in some southern zones. This storm will continue till early afternoon, take a break then return with a big punch again tonight before it finally tapers off in the early morning hours. Many updates to come today, including raw footage. I have linked my twitter feed to the right hand bar of this page for the live feed. 

Live footage up around 1030am*

11:30pm Update: Snow Spreading Into Our Southern Regions

Quick Update: Live Coverage When Event Begins

Live Coverage Begins at 10pm: Will Track Storm in Real Time

Major East Coast Storm Definite: The Final Forecast

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BACKED OFF ON THE THREAT OF A MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EVERY MAJOR OPERATIONAL WEATHER MODEL IS NOW ON BOARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH FLIGHT RECONNAISSANCE HAS BEEN OBSERVING AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORETASTED TO INTENSIFY MORE AS IT TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND ALL DAY TOMORROW. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SOUTH JERSEY, BALTIMORE, WASHINGTON WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND RAIN THEN CHANGE BACK TO SNOW TOWARDS END OF EVENT. TO THE NORTH AND WEST THIS IS A HEAVY SNOW EVENT WITH ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 OF 12-18 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY THURSDAY AS HEAVY SNOW ARRIVES AND GUST UP TO 50 MPH. ALONG WITH THE HEAVY SNOW THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL CONDITIONS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE ALL DAY ON THURSDAY. THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT WILL BE CLOSE TO 24 HRS FROM START TO FINISH AS THE STORM WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE THE STRONGEST STORM OF THE SEASON BY FAR AND HAS THE MAKINGS OF A CLASSIC.

Detailed play by play video:

My going forecast:

Notes: I extended 6-12 into northeastern NJ. The 5-10 will be toward the lower end the further south and east you go in that shaded region

Updates and commentary today on twitter @weatherwilly. Next blog update will be tonight along with live footage to follow. 

New Update at 8am

Evening Video Update: On Track

Not much to add really, my summary this morning said it all. The NWS now has a winter storm watch up for our area. The afternoon model runs have been consistent with my ideas and even the GFS has started its correction westward which I think it will continue to do until tomorrow. I have no reason to change my original snow map below. After tonight's model runs I will have my final forecast tomorrow morning. There are more extreme model solutions out there (Canadian) but I am not ready to buy that at this time- do not want to over hype. After tomorrow I will be focusing on live coverage. For more frequent updates you can find me on twitter @weatherwilly for commentary.

MAJOR EAST COAST STORM NOW IMMINENT

SUMMARY:

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL EFFECT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL MAJOR MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROFESSIONAL WEATHER OUTLETS ARE NOW ON BOARD WITH MY IDEAS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. HEAVY SNOW WILL BREAK OUT AS THE LOW BOMBS OUT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH INLAND AND 55 MPH IN COASTAL AREAS. THIS STORM WILL BE THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON AND MOST LIKELY EXCEED A FOOT IN MANY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 12-18 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF 95 AND UP TO A FOOT IN AREAS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF 95. SLEET SHOULD MIX IN WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MID DAY THURSDAY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTH JERSEY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AT THE END OF THE EVENT.  

I am not changing my snowfall map for this event based on the convergence of model guidance. The american model has now shifted to come more in line with all other operational models. We are in for a big storm. Let the media hype begin.

Latest European model 7pm Thursday night..

Next detailed video update will be up around 530pm tonight. Be sure to check in. Until then find me on twitter @weatherwilly

Major East Coast Storm to Effect Area Thursday

Below is my video update on the Major Nor'easter that will effect our region very late Wednesday night through Thursday. I believe this will be by far the biggest storm of the year for interior NJ and New England. This is not a major snowfall for central and south Jersey. I think decent accumulations will occur in those areas but they will be tapered by sleet and rain working its way in towards the middle of the storm. To the north and west of I-95 expect a major snowfall with high winds, blowing and drifting snow. I have all the play by play details in the video below along with my updated map. Of course having two days to go nothing is set in stone so please do not alter your plans at this time. Wait until tomorrow night to make sure my ideas are coming to fruition. I will say however, I think it is important to make a forecast and take a unwavering stance as part of the philosophy of this blog. Below is my going forecast.

Video Processing Will Be Up at 730: Play by Play of Major Storm

Significant Nor'easter Likely Thursday

Good morning, I outlined last night what I thought would occur and last nights model runs firmed up my idea. Here is my impact map for Thursday. This looks like it can be our biggest storm of the season and will produce significant snow accumulations for many people. I will not put down my initial projected snow amounts until tonight, but I gave a general idea of the direction I am likely to go. The media will now begin to hype this storm up and give a different forecast every hour. I will try to eliminate that distraction by keeping my ideas as consistent as possible. I will have a video discussion on this threat tonight around 7pm. Last nights video discussion can be found below this post.  Any questions you can leave in the comments section. First line is Wednesday not Friday night that is a typo. 

10pm Update on Thursday's Coastal Storm Threat

Good evening everyone, i had to cut things a little short due to the fact I lost power at my house and I have a low computer battery. I cut a video on details behind Thursdays storm threat on what I think will happen and also provided a basic summary below for viewers who are not as interested in the fine details. More info to come as I get power back tomorrow.

Brief Summary:

Our area is under the potential threat for a coastal storm on Thursday. This storm has the potential to produce significant snow accumulations north and west of I-95 where I think the cold air will hold. South and east of I-95 I expect snow changing to rain. The weather models are not in perfect agreement on this system. The american model keeps the storm weaker and off shore, while the European and Canadian blow up a very strong low pressure system. Based on the pattern we are in and the lack of consistency in the American model, I am favoring the stronger solution of the European model. In addition we have a set up in place that favors an interior snowstorm. To add, this is the time of year we normally get the bigger storms. Too soon to discuss accumulations, I will likely have more details on that in the next day or two. The bottom line is I am increasingly confident a storm system will occur for our region Thursday. The finer details still need to be worked out. Many more updates to come tomorrow. 

Video with the details and differences in model guidance: 

Sunday Morning Quick Update

The Thursday storm threat is still alive. The European has been the most consistent with the development of a coastal low. At 1030 PM tonight I will have in depth analysis and try to take a first stance on if and how this will evolve.

Light snow tonight few inches.

Skiing for The Weekend

Still tracking potential storm for Thursday.  Also expect some light to moderate snow Sunday night 2 to 4 in some places.

Detailed update later Sunday Night.  On Twitter as well.

Now We Just Got to Wait

I am not going to add much to the potential storm setup for middle of next week. We are now at a point over the next two days where we need to see if this turns from being a "potential" event to a legitimate threat. The storm is still on the models, but the finer details will not be worked out yet so I am not going to even attempt to make a call on this yet. Expect a more detailed post sometime this weekend that will review the finer details on if this event will occur or not. Like i have been saying to get the big one so many factors need to come together perfectly. That is why they do not occur often. 

The Blizzard of 78

The blizzard of 78 was 36 years ago today. Here is a clip of NOAA Weather Radio from that event. I will have a morning post updating next week in the AM. 

Click for Audio

Patience is Key in a Pattern like This

For those of you who watched the video last night I explained why the weekend storm was no longer in play on the models and what had to change for the storm to re-appear. Nothing has changed so the chances of a big weekend storm are slim to none at this point. However, we have the pattern in place to produce the big storms and that is not ready to change. As a result we have another shot middle of next week for a storm to develop. Could this fizzle out just like the weekend system, absolutely. Like i said in the video its very very hard to get the "big one" but the players will be back on the field next week. Here is the mid week set up, I highlighted the factors missing in the weekend storm that are present (AS OF NOW) on the new European model run. The two circled components would combine under this setup due to that western ridge. Click to make bigger. 

Our weekend system looked like the above image a few days ago on the models now it looks like this..

Very flat setup as I described last night, which does not allow the northern and southern branch to phase. Notice now there is no ridge on the west coast like in the top image so the pattern does not become amplified or in other words slow the flow down for the weekend.

So patience is key, its hard to get a very big storm. Lets see how this trends next few days. I cannot make any bold predictions until we are at least 5 days out. Otherwise i'm just guessing and so is anyone else out there. 

Storm Summary & Close Look at The Weekend Storm Dynamics

Well this last storm was everything it was advertised to be. Alot of ice and snow to the north. Here are final amounts of snow..

You can see the 6 inch line running through North Jersey (north of I-80) and amounts up to a foot to the north of that as shown by the light pink colors. You can click to make the image bigger and see the legend on the left.

Here was my final map..

And my initial map published last Thursday..

So how about the BIG WEEKEND STORM THE MEDIA HAS BEEN HYPING!!!!!!!!!!! Well of course the media always jumps the gun too early before the major details are worked out and as a result...its gone! Well for now at least. I mentioned in my video earlier this week the POTENTIAL but potential does not mean it will happen. For those of you interested I made a special video discussing the dynamics behind a storm developing this weekend, why the models have lost this storm, and what has to change for it to occur. It will be interesting to see how this trends next few days. In any event the pattern next week remains very active with mid-week storm potential as well.  Details to follow. 

7am Update

Heavy ice/snow/sleet has been falling over central and north Jersey and Pa which has made for very hazardous road conditions. Up in Sussex county I saw snow reports of up to 7"so far. Based on the modeling it looks like this storm should be over by 11am. Temps will stay below freezing for many areas however.  Here is the back edge on the current radar out in central PA. Very heavy ice still to come before this is over as seen by the intensity of the radar.

Be careful out there. Summary of the storm along with taking a look at the late weekend situation later today.

Tuesday Night: Big Ice Storm Coming With Snow on Front End

Below is my updated snowfall and ice map for tomorrow's storm. Expect snow to start in most northern counties after midnight. The snow will change to rain in south Jersey, to Ice in Central, and hold as snow until around 8 am in North Jersey then become a major icing event there. All areas north of Pennington area in NJ stay ice for duration of this event with the most ice the further north you go. I expect over .5" of ice North of I-78 and up to 0.5" of ice to the south of 78. Storm ends by tomorrow afternoon. 

Play by Play video below along with updated snow/ice map below:

I Like What I Have: Detailed Update 9pm Tonight

Don't have any major changes to my thoughts from yesterday. Tomorrow will be a mess in the morning for most areas. Expect snow to break out in the wee hours of the morning and start to accumulate in northern areas. Sleet and freezing rain will then work its way into the storm after daybreak for most areas, with plain rain central and south. The cold air should put up a fight for northern parts of our area where I expect a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain. When it is all said and done I expect several inches to accumulate in North Jersey, Northeast PA before the changeover to ice. Overall horrible commute for anyone central and north on Wednesday morning.

As I mentioned yesterday I am also closely following a potential big storm for end of the weekend and more details on that in the days to come.  

My original snow map is below in yesterdays post. I will make any tweaks if necessary to  tonight and also have a play by play of the storm so everyone knows what to expect.

Until then all details are in yesterday's post/video. 

Btw here are snowfall totals from yesterday. Pink is 6-8, very light pink is 10.

My forecast: I missed a few spots, but overall not bad I guess. Solid B-

Detailed update at 9pm tonight. 

Few Words to Describe the Potential of This Pattern Next 7 Days

Not trying to hype this up, but the players are in place. Buckle up, video below explains all the details. Here is my original snow map for Wednesdays storm. I see no reason to change it at this time.

On Track

NWS finally extends the Winter Storm Warning to North Jersey. Better late than never. Quick video update below. Heavy to moderate snow will continue though mid afternoon. My accumulation map from yesterday on track. A lot to talk about this week, be sure to check in later for a update on Wednesdays situation and another look at late next weekend.

Final Snow Forecast for Tomorrow and Preliminary Snowfall Forecast for Wednesday

Here is my final map for tomorrow's quick but hard hitting snow event..(yes I had to upgrade as much as I hate to change)

Here is my preliminary snowfall map for Wednesday's storm. 

Detailed Play by Play Below..

Snow Map for Monday

My snowfall forecast for early Monday morning through Monday afternoon. I will have a snowfall map and detailed breakdown on Wednesday's storm out soon as well. (Yes I posted a slightly different map an hour ago, I misread one of the printouts I look at.)

New Models (Euro and Canadian) Look Like My Original Map

Map above is from my discussion earlier this week. The latest runs of the European and Canadian models reverting back to this idea. Lets see if the trend holds for Wed.

Light to moderate snow event on Monday expect a few inches.