Sunday, March 12, 2017

Sunday Morning: Crippling Blizzard to Slam Region Tuesday

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW ARRIVES LATE MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND QUICKLY BUILDS IN INTENSITY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD HIT 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN SPOTS. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORM OF THE SEASON AND POSSIBLY THE LARGEST MARCH STORM IN OVER 20 YEARS. MAJOR CITIES FROM BALTIMORE TO BOSTON WILL BE LARGELY IMPACTED WITH HEAVY SNOW, HIGH WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES,ESPECIALLY NYC AND BOSTON. WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE, 1-2 FEET OF SNOW WILL FALL REGION WIDE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR DELMARVA, BALT/WASH AND SOUTH JERSEY. 

Next update on this situation will be at 6pm. We need to keep a close on how close to the coast this gets as borderline areas can be effected snow total wise. 


I have updated my map from yesterday morning with a few tweaks. I brought heaviest snow a little further south based on latest trends. In the purple zone a general 1-2 feet can be expected. I am keeping the 12-18 for now until the final forecast comes out tomorrow morning. I still am concerned that this does inch more into the coast which will keep totals down to the south especially over Balt/Wash and Southern NJ due to mixing. 




The European, Canadian, NAM, and GFS models are all flashing major signals over last 12 hours.

Below you can see the most latest European frames from Tuesday morning, afternoon and evening (click to make bigger)..




This along with the Canadian model are most aggressive with this storm system. What you see above is a major deal as the storm center passes just off the coast of NJ then NE towards Cape Cod. 

You can see the wind gusts in Kts projected for Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will result in blizzard conditions for areas near the coast..



The GFS model has been a little chaotic last 2 runs and has the storm exiting more quickly to the southeast...


This would mean heavy snow does not make it as far inland. Its snow printout map looks weird to me with a snow hole for part of the interior...

Its ensembles show a similar thing. It may very well end up being correct, but from the analysis I did of the model this projection seems off. 

Stay tuned for tonights video update!


2 comments:

  1. Great info, as always - thank you!

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  2. Willy, Thanks for all your efforts, you do a great job.
    Over by Hamilton Farm Golf Course in Chester we had 12to 13 inches.

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