Saturday, March 11, 2017

Saturday Evening Update: No Changes, Evaluating Trends

No major changes to my thoughts from this morning. We had a set of model runs today that trended east with the storm but I need to see another round or two of model runs to justify an eastern shift in my forecast ideas. Tonight's data is very important.

I will have updated forecast out with any necessary changes tomorrow morning. Many might ask is there a chance this storm doesn't hit? Of course there is but I would not assign a high probability to that at this time. 


2 comments:

  1. This thing is so not over !!! This morning, the model runs ALL looked like the perfect (snow)storm. Looked like the magic moment of model convergence had come, with at least 14 inches over Bergen / Essex / Morris / Passaic Counties on all of the operational runs. Now, this evening, divergence is back !!! The Euro track seems to have gone seaward again, ditto for the GFS -- the latter was a surprise, as the GFS had been holding fast to a coastal razor-shave track for the past few days. I haven't seen the evening CMC run yet, their mid-day was still big-snow / close track. The NAM gives an interesting twist -- still a close track with a lot of snow, maybe 10 to 12 inches, but a lot of that is sleet. The latest NAM has a very fast storm track, the storm finishes around 2pm, and starts turning to sleet and then rain just before dawn. The rain-snow line is a real close call on the NAM, with south of 287 getting 6 inches or less. Wow. Definitely a cliff-hanger here, definitely a popcorn-munching movie in progress!! I agree Willy, this one is so not over, gotta hold back on final judgement for a while yet on this one. Jim G

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    1. haha this is great to track. I think we just go by climi and history here. The track that hugs Delaware then out to the SE makes sense to me. Today will be exciting to watch data come in. I am putting out the final map tomorrow but as of now, I like what I have.

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