Monday, March 13, 2017

Monday: The Blizzard of 2017 Will Be Historical

*HISTORICAL MARCH SNOWSTORM TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY*


SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOME HEAVY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AS STORM CENTER INTENSIFIES OFF DELAWARE COAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL PICK UP RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT 1-3" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN HARDEST HIT AREAS. WINDS NEAR COAST WILL BE GUSTING OVER 50 MPH WITH OVER 40MPH GUSTS INLAND. THIS SHOULD MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TUESDAY. FOR COASTAL AREAS AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-95, SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO A MIX AND EVEN RAIN TO THE FAR SOUTH TUESDAY. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE HARDEST HIT AREAS SHOULD SEE OVER A FOOT AND POSSIBLY UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.

Play by play video tonight at 7pm

Here is my Final Forecast....




Latest model guidance has only trended more impressive with this storm system over the last 24 hours. Every major model is now indicating an intense low pressure system with remarkable snowfall rates. The height of this storm will be tomorrow morning into the afternoon. At this time whiteout conditions should spread through  most of the area. Here is latest GFS model below which has finally caught up to other model guidance...

8am...



2pm...


8pm..



You can see how intense the low pressure center is and the remarkable snowfall rates as seen by the dark blue.

Winds will be intense as well by Tuesday morning...



At 18000ft this is a work of art....


We have energy from 3 jet streams basically consolidating in the east. The trend in this data point alone gives me confidence that this threat is for real.

I will have a play by play video breakdown live at 7pm tonight. Live coverage also on tap all day tomorrow.

8 comments:

  1. Thanks for your great coverage of the storm. Do you know exactly when the storm will start tonight?

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    1. Depends where you are. New England early morning to the central aroind mid night to the south earlier

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  2. Wow, the perfect storm. The set-up and the track couldn't be more perfect for heavy snow in northern NJ. And just when you were ready to give up on winter! Jim G

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  3. The HRRR model, which is the go-to for short-range projection, has the snow starting in northern NJ as early as midnight, with around 3 inches on the ground by 6 am. Around 7, things will really get going (snowing)!! Jim G

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  4. Any idea of snow quality/weight in the Central NJ (New Brunswick) area? Heavy wet snow? Worried about roof integrity. Thanks for the great work and we'll see how everything plays out. If nothing else, storm prep got me moving and cleaned up the yard and put a bunch of stuff away.

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  5. Willy, why does it seem people are making a bigger deal about this storm than the one from last January that dropped upwards of 30 inches in northern NJ?

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