Friday, March 10, 2017

Friday Morning Storm Update: Snow Ends Later this AM, Big Storm Chances Increasing

Summary:


  • Snow ends later this morning
    • no changes to my foreacst of a low impact event
  • Big storm next week gaining more traction 
    • Timing is Tuesday morning to Tuesday Night
    • Storm is still not a lock but confidence is increasing
  • Based on my latest analysis I think the storm trends more west not east (see my map below)
    • This means heaviest snow is off the coast
    • Near coastal areas we could see snow changing to a mix if I am correct
  • There are models that are more east 
    • This would mean all snow at coast and less snow to the west of I-95
  • Regardless, someone should see a significant accumulation
    • I will be honing in on this and putting out updated maps over next few days (including accumulations)
  • Update 550pm tonight



Good morning. Big things to talk about for early next week, but before we get there lets take a look at current radar. Moderate snow is moving into NNJ and S NE currently...

Over central and S NJ it is not snowing yet but will change over. As I mentioned, not major impacts from this unless you drive on the grass. I like the snow map I had out yesterday.

Moving on, I have just made my first impact map for the storm potential Tuesday into early Wednesday...

This map is based on what  my initial estimate of the impacts this storm will have. It is not taken from one particular model and does vary somewhat from what certain models are showing. It is a forecast not a modelcast. 

I am currently in the camp that this storm trends more west not east. Some models like the Canadian and European are more east, but based on my analysis of the upper air pattern I think they are wrong. Time will tell if I am right.

If this does trend more west as I speculate it will, it means coastal areas see snow turning over to mixed precip. If it trends east, then coastal areas are all snow and the heaviest bands do not make it much past the I-95 corridor. This is why you do not see snow amounts yet, I am going to wait until tomorrow to speculate on those. 

One of the reasons I am thinking this trends more west is due to trends in the models to increase the sharpness of the trough off the coast. The image below shows the 48 hr trend over the Atlantic. Notice how the red represents it has trended sharper. This means the storm can hug the coast more..


The best model right now is the GFS IMO. This solution has support from many of its ensembles and also the european ensemble members. 



Today will be a big day of runs. Stay tuned for an update around 530 tonight.

1 comment:

  1. I dunno, Willy, the GFS "bombs away over NJ" scenario for Tuesday seems to depend a lot on how progressive that mid-Atlantic ridge will or will not be. This set-up doesn't appear to get much support from the NAO or AO, both seem to remain fairly + thru mid-next week. You're looking for the mid-Atlantic to do your blocking here. As you say, the CMC and Euro don't see that yet, they continue the generally progressive trend from the past few months; thus kicking the storm out past the 40/70, keeping us around 6 to 8 inches. This is a really interesting one, a real cliff-hanger, get out the popcorn. Thanks for the "continuing coverage"! Jim G

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