Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Wednesday Morning: The Calm Before the Storm

*Winter Storm to Affect Region Tonight*

It doesn't get much more calm before a storm than today. High temperatures will hit mid 50's to 60's in some spots with mostly cloudy skies.

Summary:


  • Strong winter storm moves into area tonight
  • Snow starts just after Midnight and picks up rapidly in intensity
  • At times snow will fall 1-2 inches per hour
  • At daybreak the storm will be at its peak
  • Snow starts to taper off by mid-morning
  • When it is said and done many areas see 6-12 inches with some local areas over a foot


You would never know we are all under a Winter Storm Warning...



I have made no changes to my forecast from last night...


The final forecast will be released tonight with any necessary tweaks, so stay tuned for that. At this time I like what I have.

Latest models are still indicating a 6 hour heavy burst of snow peaking around daybreak. You can see projected radar for 7 am tomorrow morning with heavy snow for most areas...


This will not be ideal for travel, especially north and west where surface temperatures will be colder.

More tonight around 7pm.

7 comments:

  1. Hi Willy, Glad that you are feeling better! Nothing like a winter storm to pick you up. As I said not long ago, even with a zonal flow pattern, things can come together on occasion. We shall see if the present set up with the Pacific jet and the polar vortex becomes a late winter pattern or not. It doesn't look like there is much Pacific support for a continuing stormy pattern; the EPO seems neutral and the PNA is supposed to get back to neutral in another week or so. The MJO takes a short excursion thru the eastern-trough zones, but is pretty much back on neutral territory by mid-month. The NAO doesn't get terribly blocky. BUT, of course, the polar vortex has finally arrived! Where have you been so long?

    For right now, 20 hours out, the models still seem to have some disagreement as to where the most snow will fall and how much will accumulate. NAM was aggressive yesterday, but seems to have backed off a bit. The Canadian keeps the NJ Parkway corridor north of 78 to around 6 to 7 inches. The GFS is still up there in double digits. But there was a GFS Parallel run overnight, and it was more like the NAM and Canadian. I've heard rumors that the Euro has been on the lower end of the range too. I gather that the speed and intensity of the vortex trough will determine what we get. If it's on the strong and fast side, then Friday is gonna be really cold, but the storm will get pushed further east and south, and our totals may stay around 6 inches. And it could go the other way, a foot of snow on the toll booths. This one's a real horse race. Have fun with it! Jim G

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    1. Well Jim, we finally got a decent storm on the boards to have some fun with. Always nice to see models trend stronger not weak in their final runs. The long range could be interesting, we need another big storm to salvage this winter. If that PV hangs around we got a shot. Give it another 4 weeks then we can look forward to spring.

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  2. Don't let me down Willy. I need this storm! Work is killing me!
    - Paola

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  3. It seems that across the globe snow is falling in places where it does not normally snow. I saw photos of Camels in the Middle East desert standing in snow. Drought conditions have all but vanished in California. The Western US has been clobbered with abundant cold and snow. The I95 Corridor has had some snow and is about to get hammered. They even had a big snow maker last year despite the big El Nino. Now lets examine the Central Southern Tier of NY state (Bath, Corning, Elmira, Waverly, Nichols, Binghamton, etc.), Northern PA (Towanda, Sayre, South Waverly, etc.), and Ohio. Snow has eluded these areas for years-and it continues. Perhaps during the next ice age snow will return-I think.

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    1. I feel for you, really is a snow hole lately. Maybe next year your in the jackpot though, you never know.

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