Thursday, February 23, 2017

Thursday Weather Discussion: Beautiful Weather On Tap, March Madness?

Good morning everyone. We have beautiful spring weather on tap today with temperatures in the mid to high 60's and even 70's in some spots! These nice temperatures hold through Saturday where we then will have a cold front bring things more towards normal Saturday night...


So where do we go from there? As I mentioned earlier this week, I believe winter is over for the Mid-Atlantic but not New England. Of course just after I say that models are hinting at some March mayhem, but overall I think the idea stays intact.

Summary:


  • Warm weather through the weekend with the chance at showers as a cold front passes through Saturday
  • Brief return to chilly weather early next week before more warm air to follow.
  • Pattern then potentially changes to more winter like for 2nd and 3rd week of March
    • Details still need to be worked out
  • Areas in New England and maybe parts of northern Mid-Atlantic could see on last gasp of winter with this pattern.
  • When it is all said and done I think it will be more of a 10 day wave of winter weather among an overall spring pattern (exception New England).


Lets take a look..

Next week warms up again relative to averages after a short chilly spell from the cold front the weekend..


From there, models then all start to show a little bit of a change in the tide as we get towards the end of next week and into the 1st week of March...


You are looking at the European, American and Canadian models above centered on the end of next week. I want you to focus on two areas, the red on each over the west coast and the red over Greenland. This represents a pattern that can actually deliver cold to the central and eastern USA. Now, if the red over Greenland is not strong enough then the cold centers more in the central and the east continues its pattern of mild air. That can happen as well and would not surprise me. Regardless, the signals are strong for one last push of a winter pattern for the 1st half of March somewhere from the plains eastward.

The image below simplifies this using the GFS ensemble model centered on 2nd week of March....


Again, this is very long range. I am confident in a push of cold but am not sold yet on the idea that this makes it all the way to the east coast. The theme of this winter has been to center the energy more towards the central US and keep warmer air along the east. The high pressure over Greenland seen above is what would counter this.

Bottom Line: Winter may have one last gasp from the plains eastward in the 1st half of march. Details still need to be worked out and at this time I think we see some adjustments to center the cold a little more west than what is shown above.  

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