Monday, February 6, 2017

Monday Morning: Show Me Snow and I'll Believe It

Good morning everyone. After a little lull in posting, I am back in action this week. It has been one of those winters so far. Limited snow for the Mid-Atlantic and New England region and plenty of rain as we start to look back on this winter season. We are now in the final stretch of Winter which in my book ends around the 2nd week of March. Will we see snow again? Im sure we see flakes fly again but I am not counting on much to be honest.

Some years it wants to snow some years it doesn't and it seems like this year is one of those years. For example, the rain storm that we will see tomorrow originally looked like it could be snow. As you see below, that clearly will not be the case..

Now there is a shot we do see a snow event Thursday morning as a wave of low pressure develops along an approaching polar front....

Not all models agree on this but at this time I say this is a 50/50 shot at a moderate snowfall for many areas. If all the cards align properly, we would be looking at maybe 3-5 inches. I will make more of a stance on this tomorrow after I look at today's data..

In the wake of what ever happens on Thursday, we then go into a back and forth type pattern. There will be more cold shots, but there also will be some mild days as well. We can get a big storm in the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks, I am just telling you guys that its the type of winter were I would't count on it. Lets just see if we are pleasantly surprised. 

I will say the 2-3 week pattern on paper really doesn't look bad.....

Looking above we got nice trough of low pressure south of the Aleutian Islands, ridge of high pressure over the West Coast, Trough of low pressure in the east and a nice area of high pressure over Greenland. It def can deliver guys so do not be fooled, it just hasn't this year so far. It will be interesting to see if the models back off on this as we get closer to the target period.

So lets see how this plays out, one step at a time. Stay tuned for updates on Thursday.

1 comment:

  1. It's only one winter. From 1984 to 1993 almost a decade the NYC metro area didn't see a single storm of more than 10 inches. Most of the winters had storms with at most 6.