Good morning everyone. Well, spring is certainly in the air. We discussed last week how this would occur and now we are seeing it in full swing along the eastern 1/3 of the country. Birds are chirping, flowers down near the Mason Dixon line are sprouting, and snow is melting. Out west, the mountain regions are seeing and will continue to see the action over the next 2 weeks. Expect multiple episodes of snow for those mountains. That is great for the ski areas.
So is this really it, is winter over? For the mid-Atlantic south I really think so. For New England, I wouldn't make that call yet. I can see March being a active month up there for the ski areas. Overall it just was not in the cards this year for the Mid-Atlantic region. Most areas are well below normal for snowfall and well above for temps. Up in New England, northern areas have actually done very very well while areas near Boston have been around average.
The warm pattern continues over the next 10 days...
You can see the trough of cold air/low pressure out west and the warm air in the east in the image above. This has been the theme of the winter and I see no reason why this will not continue into March as the models show.
Looking at the tropical pacific, a pattern of tropical convection called the MJO also supports this as it may head into its phase 3 as we enter March. Think of the MJO as a cluster of thunderstorms that moves through different regions in the tropics. It influences the jet stream.
This is what phases 3 tends to produce..
Notice the trough hanging west and evidence of ridging of high pressure in the east. This is not far off from what the models shows.
So can this change? Maybe as we head into the 2nd-3rd week of March but I would not count on it. Sure we can get big mid March storms, but my gut tells me its just not that kind of year. Up in New England ski areas I can see a better shot at this.
It will not be long before we are discussing severe weather season which could be active this year.
Look guys, no one loves winter more than me. I hate to see a snap like this into early spring, but its just the reality staring us right in the face. I am not going to "search" for cold and deny reality. Mother Nature always have a few surprises up her sleeve so let me be pleasantly surprises. Until then, I will be polishing up my golf clubs for spring.