Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Wednesday Night Video Update: Getting Ready to Finalize Forecast: Balt/Wash/Philly a Lock

Our winter storm is now imminent.  The only questions that remain are how far north does the precipitation shield get. At this time I still like I-84 but this will have to be monitored closely. There is no doubt we will see a very sharp cutoff in snow. The difference between a foot and two inches will be 20 miles in northern zones. I will put out my final snow accumulation map tomorrow.

This is still my going forecast. The light blue zone will likely be adjusted (at risk area).

Enjoy the video.


  1. Sorry Willy, I just can't resist sticking in a few more .02 bits at an exciting time like this. NCEP WPC's evening estimates for my humble abode here in Essex look like about 7 inches. Awaiting some word from the 0Z Euro for Thursday. GFS has been backing down on snow accum over the past 3 runs today, will see which way their 0Z goes. Looks like they are at a little under a foot now for Essex, say 8-9 inches. But that NAM !!! Whoa, if they're right, we're in the same belt with DC, Baltimore and Philly !!! CMC 12Z was higher than GFS, its map had a strange island of increased accumulation centering around Manhattan and western Long Island (Brooklyn and all that). Wonder what in their model makes it "think" that Manhattan and Brooklyn attract snow?

    We shall see what the models say with the morning light. Right now I'm still in an "under 10" frame of mind, but . . . I will admit that this is a powerful monster here, and one or two little twists and I could be in for a very cold and deep surprise. (But then again, I don't see anything about the usual 2 or 3 day cold snap that follows most winter storms; in fact, I see 40's going into next week. Nothing like melting snow to restore the spirits after a big storm!). Jim G

    1. Just caught your note, new 0z guidance looks moved north, still awaiting euro. Will comment more to your post in the morning.