This truly was always supposed to be the heart of our winter- February though early March. I based this forecast on a variety of variables but in most simple terms this is very common for El Nino winters (back loaded).
This warm up below next week is just a pattern reload in my opinion. Image below is Jan 30th to Feb 4th. The red is warmer conditions the blue is colder.
However, not so fast. All models are indicating a flip towards a pattern more like my projections by say around Super Bowl weekend..
I am keeping my eye on energy diving down towards the gulf with a fresh injection of cold air ahead of it shortly after Superbowl Sunday..
The image above is from an ensemble but shows the general idea here. We will keep revisiting this as the days go on and study trends.
In any event, if you guys need even more convincing that this winter is not over look no further to what is projected to occur in the stratosphere.
That is major stratospheric warming being projected. Its effects would be felt from Mid Feb through March with colder conditions. Do not have time to cover this right now but it is a MAJOR factor here.
Thanks for reading.