Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion: A Brief Pullback Followed By Winter's Return

Good morning everyone. Quick post today. I will outline some thoughts that I will drill down more on in the coming days. First off, our storm threat for the end of this week is off the table. As we then head into next week things should really moderate with above normal temperatures for most of the week. This warm up is being labeled by many as the end of winter. I do not buy that at all. Remember this is what I expected for February per my winter outlook..

This truly was always supposed to be the heart of our winter- February though early March. I based this forecast on a variety of variables but in most simple terms this is very common for El Nino winters (back loaded). 

This warm up below next week is just a pattern reload in my opinion. Image below is Jan 30th to Feb 4th. The red is warmer conditions the blue is colder. 


However, not so fast. All models are indicating a flip towards a pattern more like my projections by say around Super Bowl weekend..


I expect this to stay locked in for most of Feb. In fact, if I had to speculate on our next winter storm threat it would be around the Super Bowl time frame.

I am keeping my eye on energy diving down towards the gulf with a fresh injection of cold air ahead of it shortly after Superbowl Sunday..


The image above is from an ensemble but shows the general idea here. We will keep revisiting this as the days go on and study trends. 

In any event, if you guys need even more convincing that this winter is not over look no further to what is projected to occur in the stratosphere.

That is major stratospheric warming being projected. Its effects would be felt from Mid Feb through March with colder conditions. Do not have time to cover this right now but it is a MAJOR factor here. 

Thanks for reading. 

3 comments:

  1. Thanks for all the insight that you share. I plow snow down in south jersey and your information really helps in my planning for each storm as well as the whole winter. Thank you!

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  2. The 10hpa strat temps just shot up, but are still a good bit below where they were most of last February. Looks like these temps have been in a sine wave pattern since December, with an upward seasonal trend. Staying below the '79-'13 mean. If the sine pattern holds, temps will go back down for 10 days or so then shoot back up. I'm sure this warm spell is short-lived, a classic mid-winter thaw; but as to whether the trend for the next 6 weeks is going to be teens and 20's like last Feb or a seasonal 20's and 30's like most of this month . . . my .02SWAG is that we need to wait and see. The New Ice Age hasn't happened yet. The groundhog is still sleeping, all I'm saying. I'm staying tuned! Jim G

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