Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion: My Preliminary Prediction

Good morning once again. We are in storm mode right now as we track a storm system that is going to effect the east coast this weekend. I broke down the finer details in my video last night and this morning I want to give you a preliminary prediction on what can occur this weekend.

So here is a very basic impact map I made of what could occur Saturday. Consider this my initial estimate.

I am very confident in the dark blue zone. For light blue areas this all depends on how this storm trends. We are not going to know the fate here for sure until Thursday. 

Here is a summary of overall thoughts:

  • A low pressure system develops to our west on Friday and tracks towards the Great Lakes
  • This causes warmer air to filter into the area ahead of the storm
  • The low pressure to our west then runs into high pressure and is forced to redevelop off the coast
  • This is where things get interesting
    • Depending how how quickly and strong this second low pressure system forms will depend the fate for the light blue zone
    • If its stronger and earlier more snow if its later and weaker more rain
  • My video last night discussed the finer details behind what would cause this 
  • Dark blue zones I expect several inches of snow to fall Saturday
Over the last 24 hours we did see some positive trends from models in terms of developing a stronger secondary coastal low. The european model trended somewhat but still has a warmer solution overall.

However I still have doubts with how this secondary transfer is evolving on the models. I think there is room for a colder trend as the days goes on. Don't get me wrong, I do not expect NYC/Phili snows but inland is in the game.

For example, last nights GFS made progress but still looked weird at the surface with three low pressure centers...

To me this means the models is struggling to figure out this low transfer. It since has transitioned to this..

You can see one stronger low off coast. This is the trend we need to see. The stronger storm off the coast would pull in more cold air in the light blue zone! 

Today's model runs will be a big help but as of now this is my preliminary prediction based on how this can trend. We will see how these ideas work out over next few days.

More later tonight. 

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