Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Tuesday Morning: The Preliminary Prediction

Good morning everyone. Thanks for everyone who checked in yesterday the site hit a new time high for visitors. Our major if not historical east coast storm remains on track for this weekend. However, I have begun to now hone in on the finer details and took a first shot at putting together a snowfall prediction. This eventually will be updated to a final forecast as the event is within 36 hours.

So here is a summary of where we stand right now:

  • A major east coast storm will effect the area from late Friday night into very early Sunday morning.
    • This storm has the chance to be historic due to its duration and potential snowfall rates
  • This storm will feature periods of heavy snowfall and windy conditions especially near the coast.
  • The height of this storm looks to be late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night for the NYC area
  • As stands there is some spread in the models for the epicenter of this storm. 
    • Some take the heaviest snow more north some take it more south

Here is my preliminary snowfall forecast. I will update this as we get closer to the event

You will notice I have a cut off in snowfall to the north. This is due to my idea that this storm does get a little suppressed for areas in southern New England. I could be wrong but I am trying to anticipate where things might trend not where they currently stand. If necessary I will update to higher totals if I am wrong.

My concern lies below:

Left image is old European ensemble model right is new. Notice the circled area. On the new run this vortex is pressing more and is stronger. This can cause the storm to stay a little more south if this trend continues. Just something to keep and eye on. 

As I mentioned in the video last night this really reminds me of the Blizzard of 96 but maybe a tad bit more south. Look at the comparison below..

Left is 1996 upper air pattern right is this storms upper air. Pretty amazing stuff!

So lets see how this trends today. I want to make sure i do not see any further movement south than I anticipate.

I will have another video update at around 830 tonight with updates.

Stay tuned!

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