Tuesday, January 19, 2016

The Tuesday Night Storm Update: Drama In Model Land, Keeping a Steady Hand

Good evening everyone. What a day today model land. Our major storm has trended south on many of the major  models. I am not completely surprised as I mentioned the risk of this in my morning post. It does not mean that I am changing my forecast. In the video below I break down why this happened, my thoughts on if it will verify, and what to expect in terms of impacts.

This is always the story with big storms, they never are a lock up until 36-48 hours before a event. The reasoning is the models need to sort out a lot of variables. The difference between 2 feet and 2 inches in NYC literally is a pin prick when it comes to how energy is handled. It all comes down to trends. At this time a trend has started south, however, we are still over 3 days way. This means things can also flip back north. As a forecaster you need to anticipate how things will change not where they currently are. You base this on how the atmosphere is set up. At this time I believe the whole tri-state area is still in play. My snowfall map factors all of this in. If necessary I will update this. 

The next 24 hours are key. Will the southern trends continue? Only mother nature knows. 

More in the video.


2 comments:

  1. Quite a horse race going on in the Euro right now! That is, between the high coming out of the plains and the big low coming up from the bayou. The 00Z had the high very politely staying well above it over the Laurentians and getting out past it by seaboard time. Now (12Z), the darn thing buzzes almost right over the storm on a zonal flow into northern Maine, pushing it out to sea further and faster. So the big snow-bomb then finds itself on the wrong side of the 40 70, though it sure has a fun time over Virginia and DC. Oh, that Euro. Now, is it going to change its mind again? Which would be somewhat un-Euro like, given its rep for getting the pattern right early on. But this whole set up is extremely dynamic as you've noted, so the horse race is still on! I'm still betting against 12 to 14 for Essex, but the race is hardly half over yet. Jim G

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    1. A horse race it is Jim. The 12-14 in Essex is very high stakes! I do forecast tho that they remain in a decent spot. The trend in that high got better last night which is good. Euro had a nice shift north. Things will jump around more today but by tonight we should have a good handle.

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