Saturday, January 9, 2016

Saturday Morning Weather Discussion: Watching This All Evolve

Quick update this morning as I laid out the potential we are facing with this pattern over the last week.  

Before we begin, snow lovers will get a nice left hook to the face tonight with a nice rain storm.  The arctic cold air is too slow to arrive and an early phase of the northern and southern jet result in this inland runner. This storm should filter out any speculators on this winter. Let them go short. 

Moving on..

Few things on my radar. First I am keeping my eye on Northeastern New England for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Energy is going to dive in on the northern jet stream and try to tap into moisture from the southern stream at the last second near the Gulf of Maine. You can see the surface projection below..

Due to the blocking to the north, areas in Maine, Eastern NH and Mass can see a few inches of snow. For Maine in particular over 6 inches is possible with this system in the eastern sections. I was watching to see if this approaching northern system would dig a little more but it looks like it stays pretty tame keeping the tri state area out of its effects. 

The pattern stays very awake as we head into next weekend. The European model is now trying to develop all types of storms.

First development is Friday offshore.

That is just an absolute bomb (949mb low pressure, anything under 990 I would consider very strong). The models is trying to say we get a triple phase of the jet stream. Yes it is offshore but remember guys when we have a pattern like I discussed in my last post, all these storms bear watching. Small changes in the upper atmosphere cause drastic changes in track at the surface. That high pressure or -NAO over Greenland slows down the flow of the jet stream allowing energy to consolidate.

Moving on from Friday models are still insisting on another storm threat Sunday into Monday. The GFS Canadian and European show this storm forming. Some are offshore but the point is we have yet another storm threat on the boards. GFS is most aggressive..

This threat has had my eye for a few days. I posted this image below to twitter earlier last week..

This shows the upper air pattern ahead of  Monday's storm threat. The key ingredients we need are all there. In fact its almost textbook. Now its just a matter of do they all come together. As I mentioned, the longer this pattern stays around eventually somethings got to give.

As the days go on I will start to hone in and give updated perspectives on all this. 

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