Good morning everyone. Well the saying always goes "snow breeds snow" will that be the case this week? I am keeping my eye on a close call with a coastal storm on Thursday along the east coast. At this time I would assign a 40% probability to this occurring. So basically there is a better chance this misses us out to sea than hits us. Like I said its a very close call though so lets take a look..
The development of this storm starts with a weak low pressure center passing to the west of our area tomorrow..
This will lay down a cold front in its wake. This cold front will give the main storm a boundary to develop along. You can see the front below in blue..
We then have two disturbances to monitor. One is associated with the northern jet stream the other the southern jet stream.
Looking above you can see these disturbances with the northern one being located near WI and the southern piece over the Gulf of Mexico. THE KEY TO THIS THREAT IS THE TIMING BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES COMBINING.
Moving on, the southern piece of energy will spawn a low pressure center to develop in the Gulf. As the northern energy tries to dive in, it will guide where this storm goes..
You can see above the combination trying to form. In this model (GFS) it occurs a little too late and the storm stays off shore..
Now as you guys can see this is not projected to miss the area by much. Little changes in those pieces of energy can cause this storm to hit our area. Looking at recent trends you can see the old GFS on the left and new GFS on the right. Notice how the energy is trying to interact a little more on the new run..
Which as I just explained pulls the low closer to the coast as seen below..
We will need to monitor very closely over the next 36 hours and see if this trend continues. There really is not any blocking upstream (HP over Greenland) so that does make it much harder for this energy to combine. Basically it is all 100% timing and we need to "thread the needle".
All the major models do keep this offshore but as you guys can see it wouldn't take much to change this.
Thanks for reading, more to come.