Friday Update: Looking at Latest Trends In My Case Study

If you guys have been reading over the last few days I have been discussing how things could get interesting right after the Superbowl. The mild weather will come to an abrupt end and we will have an arctic outbreak on our hands following the Superbowl. It is during this outbreak that I am watching for a storm to develop.

I originally posted this image on Tuesday (all valid week following the Superbowl)..

I then updated this on Wednesday to show the updated evolution. Notice the ridge out west and the blue which means a trough of low pressure in the east. 

Today's updated runs of the GFS ensemble show this below..

You can see the model starting to get stronger with the cold air in the east and the ridging out west. The question becomes will a storm develop from this setup. 

Right now the GFS ensembles (take main model, vary inputs for potential error, rerun many times- the ensemble mean is an average of those runs) are hinting at a low pressure center developing near the east coast for this period.

So far so good with trends but we have a LONG while to go. We are 12 days out still. Regardless you guys can all see how this can evolve. Much more to come on this. Thanks for reading.