Sunday Night Pattern Overview: Cold Air Very Close

The pattern change I have been discussing is underway and will be noticeable for our area by Wednesday with much colder conditions in the 50's. That is 5-8 degrees below normal for this time of year. The local weather outlets have already begun to hype it. This pattern change is due to a few large scale features including a big ridge out over the west coast, and blocking over the top in Greenland. These features are seen below...notice the large green area which represents the polar vortex displaced over Northeastern Canada..

This setup allows cold air from Canada to flow into the eastern third of the country. Combine this with an active southern jet and we have a setup that can cause a northern stream disturbance to tap into some gulf moisture by middle of the week. 

This setup will cause a cold rain for our area and some light snows inland of a few inches possible especially over higher elevations. In addition the low pressure system spinning over Canada will cause some lake effect snows this week. 

So how about the rest of the month into November...

Long range guidance keeps a trough over the east around Halloween..

This will keep temps on the colder side for this time of year through month end. I suspect this pattern will break by November where some seasonal conditions will come back into play. Until then we will see very active weather associated with that trough with the potential for multiple chances at snow over the lakes region and possibly interior Northeast.

My winter forecast still looks good based on recent data. I will be updating that sometime in Nov. I think the low sun activity will be a big factor based on recent research.

Stay tuned for updates on mid-week system which could becoming interesting.