Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Tuesday Night Update on Fridays Storm

The new European does not come out until 2:30am, but I just had a chance to look at the new run of the American model (GFS) and its coming into better agreement with the consistency of the European. Its safe to say a big storm is coming...ground zero still looks to be the Boston area with an easy 12-15 inches of snow 

This storm system is very complex and actually involves 4 features that need to come together perfectly in order for our area to get snow. In the current state they appear to do so, but for those of you who are interested, lets take a look at what those features are (click to make bigger).

This map represents cyclonic winds in the upper atmosphere which helps see where different areas of instability are. These areas combine to create strong storms at the surface.

 Part 1 is the pacific trough which will help amply the eastern trough and pull the remaining three pieces together. We have piece 2 which is the lagging southern stream energy which will speed up and combine with piece 3. The key will be when the last part of this recipe which is piece 4 coming in from Canada chooses to phase with 2 and 3. If this phasing occurs a little late then the storm will develop further to the north and east sparing our area of any significant  snow. If however, it phases much earlier then we are looking at very high snow totals in interior counties which would range from 8-14 inches. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN with the phasing so what we are left with is a storm that develops just to our south and rapidly intensifies as it approaches ground zero which is Boston area. This of course can change due to the complexities explained above. I

As I said, it is a very tricky forecast but I will say I am very confident in the amounts around Boston, CT, and Interior NY/  North Jersey. Elsewhere especially around I-80 its going to come down to a difference in 30 miles on how those features I explained above choose to phase. 

February is going to be an active month so if for some reason we miss this one, we have another storm on Valentines day right behind it. I think that my original prediction from December of 2 east coast storms will pan out when it is all said and done. Lets focus on this storm first.... 

Check in a few times daily for any updates on these amounts as they can change...

That's all for now, more tomorrow

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