Monday, February 11, 2013

Monday PM: Snowfall Map up for Wednesday...Whats Ticking for The Weekend?

Good evening. As I promised here is the update for the snow event Wednesday and a closer look at this weekend. 

Starting with the snow event..snow will spread into our region late Wednesday afternoon and last until early Thursday morning. The models originally had this as a southern storm, but as expected have started their correction northward and are setting up in a common spot of the NJ coast. This will be a nice MODERATE snow event with accumulations ranging from 3 to as high as 8 inches in some local spots.

Here is the GFS model, which in this case is my model of choice for this event as I like how it has lined up in comparison with the other models.  I hate to say it, but the European seems late to the party on this one...lagging behind making a slow correction northward.

Not a real powerful storm, but a nice snow maker. Here are my expected accumulations at this time...

Now, once this clears through there can be some mischief on the horizon for late this weekend. A super trough is going to dig down into the entire eastern third of the country late this week...

Anytime the jet stream goes to this extreme and dives this far south into the gulf of mexico one has to be on the lookout (the polar jet stream basically is outlined in blue). First off, it is rare for a trough of this magnitude to form. If energy from the jet stream in mexico (southern jet) manages to merge with energy from the polar jet stream now sitting in the gulf of mexico literally a bomb can go off on the east coast. This is due to the fact a storm can form earlier and further south giving it time to mature on its way up the coast and reach peak intensity by the time it gets to new England. The models have began to hint at a scenario that would form a massive storm somewhere in the east ranging from just off the east coast to out in the Atlantic ocean. All I want to do today is show how there are players on the table for that to occur. Whether or not it will occur is up to mother nature and if I begin to see any trend or agreement in the models for the extreme solution of a super storm occurring I will be the first to let you know. I will not however start speculating based on one run of a model showing a huge storm. Just keep checking in and I will update if there is any reason for concern this weekend..

Next update coming tomorrow morning thanks for reading..

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