Thursday, February 28, 2013

Let It Ride

Good Morning. I have mentioned numerous times in the last two weeks how favorable the pattern has been for a big east coast snowstorm. Yet, dates of these possible events have come and gone. That's the funny thing about the weather, the atmosphere can be in a perfect setup but at the end of the day it will still snow where it wants to snow. This year it wants to snow in new England not in the mid Atlantic. This has made it very frustrating to see so much potential week after week and watch that potential dissolve for our area as the target date comes closer. What I am trying to say is sometimes the fundamentals of the atmosphere can be strong to support a big storm developing, but it just does not happen. Its like owning a stock that on paper is a great bargain yet these strong fundamentals still do not result in you making any money. That's how parts of this winter have felt this year. 

Don't get me wrong the pattern is very favorable up until mid march for a mid Atlantic snowstorm to develop. I look at the models and now they hint at March 6th as being the day, not the 4th. Considering I will be traveling out west on March 6th, it will prob snow knowing my luck. Right now, we just have to lets things play out and when spring finally breaks look back and make the final call on how winter was. If we end up a classic blockbuster storm to end this winter, it will be funny to see how everyone will forget about the lack of snow for NJ most of the winter. 

So you might be thinking whats the deal lately? First March 1st, then March 4th, now the 6th? The fact of the matter is, I can only make predictions based on what the data shows me. This year the models have been very inconsistent. Take the European for example, for some storms such as the big blizzard a few weeks back it nailed. Yet other times it has flopped. The same goes with the gfs. If anything, I hope by reading these posts you saw through my analysis why storms could form on these dates. Its more than just looking at if a storm shows up on a model, and I try to show that by using the upper air charts that more or less show if there is "potential" despite the model print out. I hope by doing that people can lean how these storms can develop. 

Lets let it ride until mid march. I will keep updating on any potential storm threats up until then. As difficult as it is to try to forecast a storm 7 days out, and put a little skin in the game (unlike the overly conservative public weather outlets) the more exciting it will be when and if it comes to fruition. Thats why I hope people choose to follow this blog. To get a perspective you will not find anywhere else.

More updates tonight..

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