Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Afternoon Update: New Euro In

The new run of the European model is in. Overall not much has changed from my original ideas. Like I clearly mentioned in my last post the North Jersey area is a battleground because it is right now the threshold of where the storm is coming together. Thus, any slight shift in the dynamics means more or less snow than I have. The new run of euro verifies all my snow amounts up in southeastern New England where someone is going to get over 2 ft. For us, the current run has North Jersey (I-80 northward) in a healthy band of 6-8 inches. That is a little below my initial projection, but I am not going to change my map yet. For timing the storm now looks like it will be a Friday afternoon to Saturday morning event, heaviest at night. We are literally talking about a margin or error of 30 miles for if we get the real heavy snow or not. All three waves responsible for this storm need to merge sooner rather than later. As you can see, the models are going back and forth but if you average the runs we are left with a good shot at decent snow for our northern counties. I will update again around 11 pm tonight.

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