Monday Night Storm Update: Historical Might Be The Word

We really got a big one on the boards for this weekend. In my video I break down my latest thoughts and what to expect. I will release a first prediction on snowfall amounts sometime tomorrow. If your not patient and looking snowfall forecasts that will change every hour , you can always tune into your local on the 8's.

There still is an outside chance this storm can miss south. However, if I see one more day of consistency in the models then the chances at that are very slim. That is why I want to wait a little longer before really honing in on this. Enjoy the video. 

More tomorrow morning.

Video at 7pm Tonight: Lots to Discuss

Monday Morning: Major Winter Storm Threatens Area Friday Night Through Saturday

Good morning everyone. The whole entire Mid-Atlantic is currently in the cross hairs of a potential major winter storm this weekend. After a snow starved winter, it looks like mother nature not only can wake up, but deliver a crippling blow if this comes together correctly. 

In this post I will summarize this storm threat and give everyone what the best and worst case scenarios are. I will also tell you guys what I think is most likely a this current time. I want to make it clear that this storm is not yet a lock. We all saw last year how things can rapidly change and a the difference between 2 feet of snow and 2 inches of snow is a very thin margin. I am not going to make an official forecast till tomorrow due to the complexity of this threat. 

Here is a summary of what is going on:

• The area is currently under the threat of a major winter storm
• If this storm materializes the time of arrival would be mid Friday through Saturday
• Areas from DC to Boston have the shot at historical snow accumulations due to a long duration 24hr+ snow event
• Where the actual epicenter of the snowfall is will depend on how the energy in the atmosphere sets up
• This current energy is still way out off the west coast and poorly sampled
• This is the main reason I am not showing any snow maps yet  
• The weather channel will give you a snow forecast but it will change every 6 hours- I do not do that. 

• There are only two scenarios for this storm in my opinion
• Scenario 1: This storm forms and effects the whole Mid-Atlantic
• Scenario 2: This storm will miss to our south due to energy not consolidating properly along the east coast
• Although scenario 2 is not currently modeled it is not off the table
• This is why the next 24 hours of data will be key. 

So now that you have the summary lets jump into details. All major weather models are showing this...

Above is the GFS (American weather model) in 6 hr increments (click to make bigger). Read this from top row left to right, bottom row left to right. You can see the potential we are dealing with here as this storm stalls over our area. 

So why is this happening? It all has to due with the set up in the atmosphere at 18k feet where large scale meteorological features are present. 

Looking above you can see areas of high pressure in red and areas of low pressure in blue. This storm is developing due to pacific energy getting bunched up along the east coast. This is happening because the jet stream is rising over the west coast causing a sharp trough in the east. Also, this energy is not allowed to just escape out to sea due to the "blocking" or low pressure center over the northwestern Atlantic. This low pressure system up there also helps lock in cold air to make any precipitation that falls snow. 

Cold air is one factor that will not be absent. Historically most major storms are always preceded by a big arctic outbreaks. You can see below that is currently the case right now as seen by the cooler colors over our area. 

As the storm approaches that vortex or low pressure area in the Northwestern atlantic helps hold this air in place.

Now where can this go wrong? Let me show you..

Looking above you are seeing all the energy way up in the atmosphere that causes storms. For those of you who are looking for this storm to bust, you need to depend on that western ridge of high pressure breaking down. This would happen if the energy in the pacific behind the storm crashes onto land. This would break down this ridge and allow the energy that forms our storm to not come together and get "sheered" or stretched out. 

At this time I do not see much evidence to support this.This next image is by the European Ensemble Forecast System (best weather model).  Looking below you are seeing the areas the model is having a hard time projecting as indicated by the green and yellow colors. This is called a spread and means that there are varying solutions of where certain features in the atmosphere will set up. Notice however that the spread is very low with that ridge out west. You can see this by the lack of any bright colors around that axis I drew in. This means the model is currently confident in that ridge forming. 

'

So that is the biggest factor in my opinion. You build this ridge you get this storm. 

So buckle up guys we might have a big one on our hands here. 

I am going to keep track of how all these factors evolve today and have a video update live tonight at 7. 

Stay tuned!

Sunday Morning Weather Discussion: The Final Countdown

Good morning everyone. Quick post, still away for the weekend but this is it guys. Our strong storm signals for this weekend have strengthened over last 36 hours. If this verifies this would be a true slump buster for all the woes we have had this winter (if you are a snow lover) That is the type of potential we have on the table here. All major model guidance Is showing a significant storm effecting the area. So what's my take?  Best shot we have had all year let me summarize.

First let's acknowledge that so far this season every decent threat 5 plus days out has never materialized. My theory on this is that it was because there was too much energy in the jet stream causing things to move along too quickly thus not consolidate.

So as we move towards this weekend will that be the same case. This time I think we have a chance otherwise.

The image above shows the spread from the European ensemble members. I circled how there is a low spread on a western ridge of high pressure. This is a big sign as it would slowdown the flow or this firehose of too much pacific energy entering the field. A low spread means most ensemble members agree on the position and strength of this ridge.

Looking below, the next image shows the upper air set up ahead of this storm at 18k feet. Will save the details for later but this looks excellent to me. There is a strong area of air coming together in eastern Canada this is called confluence and causes high pressure to form to the west at the surface. With the vortex of lown pressure also near eastern Canada in this image, this is a great sign for cold air getting locked in. Ahead of this storm.

So now it really comes down to the timing and nature of the pacific energy that will seed this storm. That energy is still way off the pacific ocean. In the coming days we will see how it is handled and it's impacts on how this major storm threat trends.

If everything works out perfectly we end with something like this.

This is something we would all be writing home to mother about.

I titled this post the Final Countdown due to the fact if this winter forecast is going to verify we need a big ticket item like tbis storm threat to materialize in next 10 days. Otherwise we are simply running out of time. Nothing like coming down to the wire!


More details tonight or tomorrow morning. Stay tuned.

Excuse any typos this is from my cell phone

Gone Skiing

Or at least I'll attempt to given there's no snow anywhere! Storm is pulling through area things will clear for rest of weekend.

Still eyeing end of next week. I'm giving this 10 more days. We need to see it snow or all signs projecting to a very stormy pattern heading into Feb. The towell is not in my hand yet but I am staring at it right now.

Enjoy the weekend..might throw in an update or two. 

Friday Morning Weather Discussion: Some Snow for Ski Country, Rain Elsewhere

Good morning everyone. Latest model guidance is fairly consistent with yesterday regarding tomorrow's storm. Most areas will see rain move into late tonight/early tomorrow morning and last into the afternoon. Up in VT, NH, ME and mountains of NY State snow will accumulate a few inches with locally higher amounts in certain mountain areas. We also need to watch next weekend for a true big city snow threat. 

Here is the storm very early tomorrow morning..

As we get to mid morning you can see the snow break out below for ski areas below. Notice also the rain has pulled out of NJ area. This is what I meant when I said the storm will be more of a quick hitter so impacts will be more limited than originally thought. 

When it is all said and done I like the NAM models snow output..

In the wake of this storm more bitter arctic air moves in for next week..

For all of next week temps will struggle to get past freezing. This will be an impressive air mass. 

Then comes more drama. At this time all models are flashing a strong storm signal for next weekend. Yes, I know nothing has panned out so far this year and every storm that has shown up never happened but the set up once again is very ripe.

Storms love to form on the back of big arctic outbreaks especially for the big city areas. The key is does the arctic air stay in place long enough for the storms arrival. Right now all the major models ENSEMBLES which are the Canadian, European and GFS all show this storm running into all this arctic air. You can see this below..

On top left image is the European ensemble. Notice the low pressure center almost identical to the other images and the blue or cold air over the whole area. This would result in a major snowfall for Mid-Atlantic. 

The key is how do we hold in this cold air. Well I show below..

The key to all of this is holding the cold air in place. The only way that happens is if we see a vortex or low pressure center over the red circled area. If that is not there, the HP would be allowed to slide out to sea and the storm would bring in warm air. 

We also do not want this storm to be too slow. The slower it is to arrive the greater chance the cold air has to leave.

In reality this might be our best shot so far this season but I urge a big word of caution. The models are really struggling this year with all the energy that is on the field (from the el nino). We only can speculation right now and see how this trends. 

Thanks for reading. 

No Update Till Morning

Rain on tap for Saturday, ski area snow- could still be several inches. More in the morning. Models came back west today some. This storm defeated me last night so at this point I waived the white flag and am just going to communicate updates.

Until next time!