Good morning. We have a storm system that will approach the area Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. It will initially be all rain then change to snow in areas to the north by Thursday night. Several inches can accumulate in the mountain regions of NY, Mass and southern VT. Further south a coating to 2" is possible. Before this storm moves in, it will cause a severe weather outbreak in the south today and tomorrow. Tornados are possible.
Here is my preliminary forecast...
This is a tough one as some models do show more snow than what I have. However, given the late season I am going with my gut on this one. I think most of the snow is in places like the Catskills, Berkshires, Southern Greens and NW CT mountains.
The best model right now imo is the high resolution NAM model in terms of rain/snow line...
The air is initially too warm for snow. However we have a cold high pressure system that will build in from the NW which will then funnel cold air into the storm changing the rain to snow in many areas...
As this occurs the rain changes to snow for many areas. By the time the cold air gets to areas like NNJ, i think most of the precipitation will have fallen, that is why I do not have as much snow down there.
As our upper level low exits, there should be some enhancement in snowfall in the higher terrain of VA, WVA, and MD seen below on Friday...
Btw, the upper level energy that will cause this storm will also result in severe weather today and tomorrow across the south. Some tornados are expected...
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