- A historical air mass directly from the Arctic will be moving in tomorrow night
- Energy from the pacific jet stream will try to round the base of this Arctic air an spawn a storm
- Where it snow will depend on exact final placement of the Arctic lobe of cold air
- Right now I still favor Poconos,Greens,Berkshires, and potently higher elevations of NW NJ,CT and Mass to see accumulating snows early Saturday morning
- Other areas closer to coast can still see flakes fly just no accumulations
- There are outside scenarios the snow cam make it closer to the coast. I will be monitoring this
- Will have next update tomorrow morning
Lets take an updated look. The image below shows the arrival of the Arctic air...
This is incredibility impressive and historical for May. The dark green is the center of the air mass and a storm will form on its southern flank as energy rounds the base of it seen below...
The above is from the GFS model and does a decent job on what I think will occur with this in terms of snow placement in the image above.
The European is a little more inland with the snow due to the Arctic air lobe being slightly more north...
This is definitely also a plausible scenario.
Back to the GFS. The latest GFS model is doing something very interesting that the NAM model started hinting at last night. It is really digging in the arctic energy causing the snow to bloom more as the storm pulls away. This would be the snowiest possible scenario...
So what is the verdict at this time?
I think this snowfall projection is the best bet for now...
This comes from a completely different model but I like what its doing with overall placement. You may say its too conservative but I am not ready to fully jump on board yet.
Regardless of what happens, Saturday will be a winter like day with snow showers/squalls impacting many areas.
Buckle up crazy weather is on the way! Stay tuned!
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