Good morning everyone. As a follow up to my Monday discussion I cut a video breaking down the weather pattern over the next two weeks. This winter will not die easy this year and if a few things come together we can get into a snowy pattern eventually. Patience is key. In the meantime things will moderate over the next 7-10 days.
Here is a summary:
- Moderating temperatures through Christmas
- This means slightly above average (mid to high 40's most spots)
- As we approach towards the New Year, evidence in the pattern is developing that shots of colder than normal air resume
- If we get any big storms or not will depend on the pressure pattern over Greenland
- That remains to be seen
Enjoy the video..
Willy, I'm seeing a nice warm-ish ridge over the US Atlantic seaboard by Jan 6 according to today's GEFS ensemble mean. PNA projections go slightly negative after Christmas, but the NAO seems to stay positive into the New Year, if not by much. We don't appear to have the same big cold pool in the Atlantic between Iceland and Greenland as last year (which helped keep the NAO pretty high last winter), but there is still some cold water in that region. And the gulf stream still seems to be shuttling warm water towards the Azores. If the relatively high polar water and air temps are maintained, we might (warning, just a guess on my part) see continued ice melt from Greenland flow into the Atlantic, helping to maintain the Iceland low and pushing gulf stream water far enough south to support the Azores high. QED, generally positive NAO. Sure, this is all just a scenario. All I'm saying is that a variety of scenarios are still possible for January, still up in the air. Right now, I'd guess (mostly SWAG) that your best bet for cold and storms remains the potential for big SSW's given all of that polar water energy and the EurAsian snowcover (but I read somewhere recently that even though the snowcover got off to a big start in October and November, it's been a bit behind the curve of late).
ReplyDeleteI'm just suggesting that although a secular cold-shift in the pattern is a real possibility after New Years, we're not there yet -- there are still some wild-cards in the mix. We shall see. Jim G
Hey Jim,
DeleteMy biggest focus has been trying to figure out these ensemble packages in the long range. They seem to be underplaying AK riding which in turn allowing less cold air press and more SE ridge. As peroids approach they then start to strengthen that ridge and the cold air gets unleashed. As for the NAO, the jury is still out. There is certainly signs of it but nothing yet to get very excited. The EPS package is most agressive and if that verifed then the mid-atlantic gets in the mix. The GFS ens more progressive and is not impressive for big snow chances. Regardless, I see no blow torch in sight. Brutal cold? Ehh maybe not for our region but my updated analogs show a very cold pattern for central and slightly below normal in the east for January. Fun times ahead. I will discuss my updated analogs soon on the blog.
As for the strat, that is the wild card but as you said there are mixed signals. Bottom line: we are still in play, nothing is a lock for the big pattern in the east yet but we have some evidence to at least support it evolving.
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