WINTER OUTLOOK 2023 IS NOW LIVE
Thursday Weather Update: Front Arrives Later Today, Weekend Looking Nice
Good morning everyone. As a follow up to my Monday post, a cold front will be arriving later this afternoon causing showers and storms to develop over the region. This is not a particularly strong cold front so temps will be reduced a little going into the weekend but the biggest factor the humidity will decrease more.
The image below represents the period from 2-5pm. You can see the model projects heavy showers and storms for that time frame for many spots in the area..
Ahead of this however we have another miserable hot and humid day with temps easily into the 90's.
In the wake of the front temps will be reduced into the upper 80's maybe low 90's for the weekend but it will feel much more comfortable. We will also have an upper level trough over the area..
This could cause an upper level disturbance or two which could spawn a shower or two but overall it should be a nice weekend.
By the way earlier in the week we have a very strong cold pool aloft move in over WY and Montana. This caused rare July mountain snows! Here is that trough below out west back on Tuesday.
The result was this over 8,000ft...
Pretty cool!
Enjoy the weekend guys.
Re Precip Chart -- it's interesting how local geography shapes summer-time storm severity in metro NJ. Going north from say I-78, thunderstorm activity generally isn't very intense, but starts picking up a bit after you get north of I-80, and really picks up after you get over the NY State line, into Orange County and up towards I-84. In Montclair, it's not uncommon in the evening to see lightening flashes on the western horizon, but then watch them track to the north into Bergen County (often w/o leaving any precip at all in Essex County). When you watch the radar, the bigger storm cells always seem to be happening up in Sussex or Orange Counties, and up in the Hudson valley around Poughkeepsie. Something about the mountains, I gather, allowing more hot air / cool ground interaction. I guess that's in keeping with the general guideline that summer weather patterns are very local, whereas winter patterns are more "big picture". Although, those places to the north generally (but not always) get more snow than Essex County. Jim G
ReplyDeleteI agree! I notice this in the winter too. It has to be due to influences from the mountains. The winter is a prime example. I live in Morristown and it is basically a snow hole compared to the west where the higher elevations are. Even when there are no issues with marginal temperatures Morristown never seems to get into the heavy snow bands. I grew up on Schooleys Mountain in western NJ and they get much more snow than Morristown which is 20 miles east. Also, I agree with you in terms of the T Storms. They always seem to die before they get here as well. It would be an interesting thing to do more research on.
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