Good morning everyone. Winter is now a distant memory as we enter our spring pattern. As I showed last week that is evident by the flow of the jet stream this week..
In general, that image shows the start of a warmer flow of air over our area. However, due to a few storm systems that will pass along a frontal gradient to our north the weather will become very unsettled at times this week. That means expect rain as we head through the week. Today by far will be the nicest day with temperatures in the 60's. Expect rain at times tomorrow and showers everyday as we head into Friday. In any event each week that goes by this month everyone will start to see more consistency in warmer temperatures. That will eventually bring the shot at severe weather as we head into May.
Severe weather will be the big concern this week in the nations mid section on Wednesday and Thursday. Without going into two much detail severe weather occurs this time of year in that part of the country due to strong conflicting air masses. You have a warm moist flow from the gulf of Mexico and have shots of cool air that come in on the jet stream from the west. Combine the two and if the atmospheric conditions are right you get severe weather. This week looks to be one of those weeks.
The target period is Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS model shows thunderstorms developing..
I circled the area of concern. In this area, we have those conflicting air masses and also conflicting wind directions. Check out the difference in winds between 5,000ft and 18,000ft in the atmosphere..
Blue is 5000ft and black is 18000ft. Looking over Oklahoma you can see how those winds are coning from different directions. This wind sheer causes those thunderstorms to spin creating a supercell thunderstorms which can produce tornadoes.
Moving back up to the grand scale you can see the tough in the jet stream approaching this area Wednesday causing this all to occur..
That blue area is a dip in the jet stream which allows the colder air mass to run into the warm air ahead of it. I could get way more complex but this is simple enough for now. I will have a lot more in the days to come including a video if this severe weather outbreak stays on pace.
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