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The 2023 Winter Outlook

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Morning Storm Update: Storm is underway.

Good morning everyone! If your crazy like me you were up long before dawn today tracking this storm. What I can say is everything is on track. The rain snow line is rapidly crashing south and all areas will soon be changing over to snow. In northern NJ the changeover occurred a few hours ago. Watch those surface temperatures as they will crash as the day goes on. This is due to the cold front slowing drifting south into the area. It is this front that is aiding in the enhancement of precipitation. Roads will only deteriorate as the day goes on and many areas especially to the south will not see an end of the snow until this eve. 
A few points:

  • The biggest impacts are central and parts of south Jersey into Delaware. For north NJ where I have 4-8 there will be travel impacts but not as severe as areas with the higher totals. 
  • To be honest I caved into the pressure last night and should have kept the 3-6 up there but what is done is done we will see if the 4-8 verifies. 
Latest rapid refresh model guidance has snow lasting until this afternoon for many 

This is projected radar at 3 pm



Heavier snow bands further south, the accumulations up north are gradual throughout the day which will help road crews. 

 Our current radar continues to show the impressive plume of moisture..

This all moves northeastward along the front that is now in place and gradually drifting south.

 One variable I look at to determine where the heavy snow will be is lift in the atmosphere. Below you can see the high lift values to the south represented by the darker colors.

These are areas where roads will take more of a beating especially when temps are lower. 

 Will this be the last storm of winter?  The answer is yes very likely FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. More to come on that. 

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1 comment:

  1. AnonymousMarch 5, 2015 at 8:27 PM

    3 to 6, 4 to 8 . . . either way, we got a nice fluffy 5 or 5.5 here in Montclair. Pretty impressive storm actually, started later than anticipated, then was in no hurry to clear to the east. This one took its own sweet time. Might not be the last snowflakes here in suburban NJ this month, as the NAO may weaken just as EPO would make a little come-back in about 10-12 days. For now, though, the snow lion of March did get to roar a bit, and who knows when the lamb will "go out". The EWR snow total no doubt got a nice little bump, may be almost around 150% of normal. This will be a winter to remember -- no huge storms (knock on wood), but once we got to late January, they just kept on coming every 3 or 4 days, mixed in with all the Arctic air. And despite all that October snow in Siberia and the expectations of a southern Pacific El Nino, this turned out to be the winter of the north-eastern Pacific. Hard to believe that a warm ocean flow could cause 0 degree mornings here. Yup, definitely one to remember, still may have a nip or two left in it. Jim G

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