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The 2023 Winter Outlook

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Tuesday Morning Weather Summary

Good morning. Here are latest snowfall reports from the storm..
General 1-3 inches in northern and parts of central NJ, 4-6 further south. The report is not fully updated yet but it gives you a general idea of what fell.

 Moving on to tomorrow night snow showers will hit the region..
There could be a few suprises here but overall a light snow threat. 

 This weekend the next storm system comes in Saturday night..

There is a lot of uncertainty with this system. Some models are cutting this more inland and some are suppressing it south. We will keep an eye on this as the week progresses. 

The cold will not let up this week. Expect frigid conditions to continue. 

More later.  

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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousFebruary 17, 2015 at 8:56 AM

    Wow, that is some fluffy snow out there !! I see some Essex County readings between 2 and 3 inches, but the EWR liquid precip reading is around 1/10 inch. I saw maybe 2 inches on my car at 6:30 am, with some imagination. That was fluff, though, no problem brushing it off. But driving thru it, that was another matter, given that the road salting and sanding around here isn't what it used to be (tight municipal and county budgets, homeowners tired of prop tax increases, welcome to Jersey).

    As to endless cold weather -- oh come on, the signs of spring are out there, if you look. Telecon forecasts this AM have the PNA's current + magnitude cutting way back on the 20th, then flipping neg on the 25th. EPO gradually fades from big neg to around neutral. NAO stays quite positive. Arctic Osc goes WAY +++ in a week or so. So maybe the big Pacific ridge diminishes, and the cold air tries to stay put above the Arc Circle. Of course, March is tough, so I'm not putting the snow gear away yet. And I see another one coming for this weekend, but temps are tricky -- could be another mixed buffet of rain, freezing rain, sleet, ice, you name it. Awaiting the insightful Willy analysis and coverage, as usual. Jim G

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    1. Weather WillyFebruary 17, 2015 at 6:12 PM

      I agree the long term signals do show relief but the problem is these models have sucked this year! I am a firm believer that the reason our area has not seen the "big one" this year is because of the lack of a negative NAO. The massive pacific ridge into AK has given us plenty of cold air for snow to fall but we never got that true gulf of mexico up the coast Miller A storm. There is still time but as we get to 2nd week of march the probability goes does significantly. We got almost two weeks of Feb back to get our big storm. Otherwise, I am all for a warm up.

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