Thursday Morning: A Closer Look at Potential Monday Snow Event

I just broke down the models for the Sunday night into Monday situation. As we have been reviewing there is a chance a area of low pressure impacts parts of the region in that time frame. At this time it appears the GFS and European operational models are a little too far south with their snow shield.

Here is the GFS..

The Canadian is likely too strong..

I like a blend between the two due to the ensemble's on the GFS and Euro having a spread to the north. Here is the GFS ensemble spread. This basically shows you how the operational model might be wrong. Notice the spread to the north indicated by the shaded colors..

I think the press of arctic air is an issue here so the storm will only be able to make it so far north. The Canadian is more aggressive because it really wants more interaction with the southern branch of the jet stream. 

Regardless a big key to this is the clipper system coming through tonight. This can drop an 1-3 inches in places to the north..

We then need to see how this departing clipper sets up  in southeastern Canada, its impact on the jet stream and how high pressure sets up ahead of the next storm. If the models are not currently handling that accurately that can have drastic implications on the forecast. 

At this time this is my threat map for the chance at moderate snow for this storm..

I should be able to really hone in on this in the next 24-36 hours as we see this clipper move through. Lets see how this evolves. 

I will try to have an update later tonight.