Quick Tuesday Comment

It will rain on Sunday. Snow is unlikely at this point for all areas of the mid-Atlantic. Maybe interior New England and Maine sees some decent snow out of this. Those areas will start as all snow and maybe change to ice or plain rain. The reason for rain is because the polar vortex is not pressing as much and there is an early phase of the northern and southern jet streams which causes a southeasterly flow over the east coast. I explained last night in my video how this was a scenario and now it looks like it will verify.

Here is GFS for Sunday..

Monday Night Video: Taking a Look at the Storm System Expected to Develop This Weekend

Monday Morning:Patience Everyone, I Really Think This Winter Can Turn Around

No, not just because I love the snow lol. I have been studying over the last few days what has gone wrong so far this winter and if there are signs this mild and snowless weather will continue through the rest of the season. After looking at everything I can tell you I cannot find the evidence to support this whole winter will be  a bust. In fact, we might have to be on the lookout for snow later this weekend. Even if that opportunity does not pan out, this pattern should eventually deliver over the course of the next two months. If I am wrong I am wrong, but let me take you though what I am looking at and also a glimpse at the storm potential for late this weekend. 

First off, I think two things happened in December that caused the warm weather we have had. For one, the pattern was "reloading" after the very cold November we had. Secondly, a global wind pattern at the equator called the QBO was too strong causing the pacific jet stream become too powerful and prevent the polar jet from sinking south and giving our region cold air. It actually acted like what we normally would see in a strong el nino winter, similar to the image below.

I do not want to bore everyone with the details behind the QBO but basically there is evidence that it will weaken over the next few weeks. This should mean that the pacific jet relaxes a little. A weakening QBO actually supports an active winter pattern in the east in its current phase, so that is clue number 1. Remember a Pacific jet stream is a good ingredient for snowstorms but it cannot be too powerful or otherwise it acts like a blowtorch. 

So lets look at November real quick in terms of temps..

No secret it was very cold compared to averages. Without getting too complicated here, the weather pattern had to reload for December. Its is not too common to have back to back months with temps this cold compared to averages.

So how do I know the pattern is starting to reload? The stratosphere and the polar vortex. The stratosphere is now under the process of warming and that warming is projected to split the polar vortex. This is a key component as it will introduce polar air into the country over this next week. The image below shows one level of the stratosphere. Notice the two different cold pools over Canada on the left of the image and over Europe on the right. The warm colors represent the warming that is putting stress on the polar vortex causing it to split into two.

Focusing on North America, we can see over the next week the influence on temps that vortex will bring. Image below is valid for Thursday and shows temps at 5k feet compared to averages. We will all notice a big change in temps this week and it will finally feel like winter.

Here is another view of the vortex over eastern Canada in blue and green funneling the cold air into the United States..

Here are where things CAN get interesting. Take a look above at the green circle over the southwest. That represents a storm system in the southern jet stream. Models project that storm system will travel towards the east coast by late next weekend. The big question now becomes will the storm cut into the interior and cause our area to be hit by rain, or will it slide just off the mid-Atlantic coast and give us the opportunity for snow. The answer to that question is going to lie with how this vortex sets up over Canada and how much cold air presses ahead of the storm. If this vortex presses further to the south and east of Canada like the European model is showing, it will set up a favorable position for high pressure to form. This high pressure will prevent the storm from moving into the lakes and instead cause it to slide off shore.It will also keep the cold air in place over our area. Here is the European model's projection of that..

All areas from Philadelphia north would have a shot at accumulating snow late this weekend into early next week with this set up. The GFS model is not as optimistic as it does not have as much of a ridge in the west and does not press the cold air as much as the European. Regardless, given the fact we are a week away both options are realistic at this point. We are going to have a fine balance between arctic air to the north and warm air to the south. Depending how how the arctic air presses will determine if the snow falls in western NY state or in the big cities. 

I will keep everyone updated on this threat this week as things evolve. Based on this pattern change coming I think that vortex will be strong enough to keep the storm out of the lakes and give our area a shot at snow. As long as the vortex does not become too suppressive and cause the storm to move out to sea. If this situation continues to trend favorable I will cut a few videos to explain the set up in better detail. Thanks for checking in, enjoy the colder temps this week!

Gathering data for post on long range pattern tomorrow AM

You will understand how the image below valid for this weekend can give us a clue as to how this winter can turn around.

Nothing to add till tomorrow, still keeping eye on early next week

Video from yesterday summarizes my thoughts. Any snow threats for the next two weeks need to be the result of cold air pressing into warm air creating a baroclinic zone. Along the east coast. I do not see the set up for any major storms at this time.

Friday Eve Post: Where is Winter?

No doubt it's been a rough December. We have a small chance of snow next week but I am focusing on the larger pattern heading into January. Will things turn around? Find in the video below.

New post later today, been busy with Christmas related stuff

I am not writing off the chance for snow yet early next week.

Merry Christmas Eve Everyone: Will We Have a White New Year?

Although some big question marks remain, we def have a shot at some snow early next week. I spoke in my video yesterday about the pressing cold air due to a big ridge of high pressure over Alaska. I am gaining even more confidence that this cold air will indeed press. All the models are showing that now. However, the differences remain in how the energy on the field is handled.

Let's start with our most aggressive solution the new run of the Canadian model...

Spins up an impressive storm for many areas. An initial wave of light snow comes in Monday and the time stamp in the image above is for Tuesday morning as a coastal low develops on the boundary between the cold air pressing and warm air to the south. This results in several inches of snow for many areas.

Now lets turn to the GFS which is similar to the European with a more suppressed solution..

The image above is not for the same time as the Canadian output. In fact this image is valid for Wednesday afternoon. The GFS has nothing for Tuesday morning unlike the Canadian . The reason is the differences between how the two models are handing the upper air energy..

Lets take a look at the black circle on the Canadian model image below..

Notice how the short wave(s) is over the central us.

Now to the GFS at the same time..

Notice how it hangs that energy back more. This is why the GFS shows no storm on Tuesday and holds it off till Wednesday. Right now you need to go with a blend between the two especially considering the European is closer to the GFS. 

Whats the conclusion at this time? I think we can be confident cold air presses late this weekend into next week which means some sort of low pressure system should develop near the east coast where a ridge of high pressure will try to fight the cold air. The exact timing is to be determined as there remains model spread with the handling of the energy. This means all I can say at this time is look for a chance of snow sometime between Monday night and Thursday of next week. Who gets rain and who gets snow will depend on how much south the cold air presses. I think central and north NJ into New England have a shot at frozen precip at this time. 

I know all the snow lovers out there have been discouraged by the lack of snow this December. It surprised a lot of forecasters. Going into January this should change and all the data I look like indicates a sharp turn to winter. Let's see if next week is the appetizer to the rest of the season. Snow or no snow we should turn to colder temperatures heading into January. I think the next three weeks are critical in determining the fate of Winter 2015!

Merry Christmas!

New Video Up This Afternoon

Going to take a look at the pattern change that should be for real this time. Along with the snow threat next week.

Tuesday Weather Video: Focusing on a Potential Snow Threat

Good morning. The video below breaks down how a potential moderate snow threat could develop late this weekend. I highly recommend you snow lovers watch this video as I break down all the different components.

In summary:

• Rainy Xmas eve and very warm
• Cold air develops later in the week for the whole country and presses against warm air along the east
• where this boundary of warm and cold air set up will determine who gets snow late this weekend/early next week.
• Right now the whole forecast area does have a shot
• After this weekend we look to around new years eve for the next threat.

More detail below:

Monday Morning: Colder Pattern to Set in, But Will it Snow?

Good morning. Today's focus will be on the period after our Xmas rain storm this week. Colder conditions will settle into most of the United States later this week through the following week up to the new year. This is due to a big ridge developing over the gulf of Alaksa..

This ridge or high pressure area over the Gulf of Alaska forces the polar jet to dive south into the United States delivering with it cold air. Here are the temperature anomolies for the peroid after Xmas until the new year.

You can see how that ridge results in most of the country having temperatures at the surface below average. Ok, so we know its going to get colder. Lets not forget it is winter haha we should be getting cold outbreaks. So how about snow. This is the question that I am really struggling with right now. A big reason for this is how the models have been so volatile this year. There has been very little run to run consistency so it really is causing a lot of headaches. But with that being said lets go back to the basics. We know we need a few components for snowy conditions along the east coast. Lets take a look at how the upper atmosphere looks in the days after Xmas..

There are a few positives in the image above valid for January 1st, but basically it represents the pattern from Xmas up until Jan 1st. So lets use this as a proxy.  The western ridge helps pour polar air into the country. The vortex aids in this as well. We have a continuation of the southern jet stream being active. But how about high pressure over Greenland? That still remains to be seen. We need to see a block develop over Greenland or in other words high pressure. This will aid in a east coast storm track. 

So basically given the uncertainties of how when and if this all develops, that will determine if we get any snow. 

Looking at the surface, the models are hinting at a storm systems on..

The 28th that could be rain or snow, looking like rain at this time..

And again on the 31st. This may be a better shot at snow..

That's all I got for now. We really need to see how this evolves. For snow lovers, lets hope we see something soon. I would hate to get past the first week of January with no snow. 

Friday Morning: Who's Dreaming of a Green Christmas???

Good morning everyone. I got a great last min gift idea today. In fact I can guarantee you it will come of great use next week leading up to Christmas.

Put away the scarf and gloves, a raincoat boots and umbrella will be required this Christmas eve. All due to a nice powerful rainstorm hitting our area on the 24th...

Cold air will rush in behind the storm for Christmas day but it will be dry. No snow in the cards this year guys. We will have to wait and see what things look like after xmas as we head towards the new year. Snow lovers I share your frustration. We SHOULD have a pattern that can produce snow but whether it snows or not is always a separate thing. Rest assured, when snow hits my radar you will be the first to know!

Thursday Morning Weather Discussion

Good morning. There is a lot going on next week in terms of weather. For us folks on the east coast it very well can result in all rain or some snow depending on how things evolve. Right now looking at the models verbatim, some snow showers come through our area late this weekend followed by light rain on Monday night then heavier rain just in time for xmas eve. Yes I know quite the depressing forecast. The heavier rain will be due to a very impressive storm system that is projected to cut to our west..

This would funnel a lot of cold air in for Xmas day but it drys out at that time. Could this be the big storm that changes this pattern to winter? Maybe, really to early to tell at this point. The models in general have a boat load of energy to process from a split flow pattern. Just take a look at all the areas of energy on the field next week below.

Rest assured, this means a lot can change going into next week with how all of these disturbances get sorted out. Quite the computing job ahead for the models. We will have to see how this all gets sorted out over the next few days. I am not ruling out a surprise with possibly some snow effecting the area next week. Yes I know things looked a lot better a few days back. Snow lovers be patient, sometimes its when you give up and let your guard down that a storm will sneak up on you. The weather pattern eventually could produce snow. I just have no idea at this point if it will be before the New Year. All we can do is watch the evolution. 

More tonight when I am back from work. 

Now It's Time to Throw in the Towel

I officially announce that the storm threat for late this weekend is over.

I explained in my video last night what ruined this opportunity for snow. We came very close but one factor threw this whole storm off. Some light snow is still possible but its nothing to write home about. 

We now turn our attention to the potential big storm threat around xmas eve. The problem is this could just as well be rain as snow depending on the track. 

As of now, the amplification the jet stream for this period is extremely impressive, but I do not see evidence of a 50/50 low. This makes me worry that we will not have high pressure in the correct spot to steer the storm track along the coast and keep cold air in place for the northeast. In any case we have a potential triple phase of all three jet streams (arctic,polar,subtropical)

Looks confusing but looking above to the right panel, each color represents each jet stream. The red is subtropical the green polar and blue arctic. The white line is the operational model projection for each jet stream. notice how the blue is dipping down over the eastern US. That is always impressive to see. So now we watch this storm threat and see how things change over the next few days. Maybe its a good thing that as of now it has our area in rain considering a lot can change. 

More later. 

Tuesday Night Video Update

In the short video below I break down why the models have backed away form a major storm threat this weekend. I am waiting till tomorrow when the energy is sampled properly before throwing in the towel on this. 

Tuesday Morning: Next 36 Hours Should Bring Clarity

Good morning. Quick post today as I am going to be very busy. Overall most of the operational models have not been overly impressive in their last two runs. Including the European they have been showing the storm moving more to the south and off the coast. This would mean a minimal impact on our area. Here is an example of the gfs..

The canadian and European are similar. However, lets take a step back here and look at the ensemble spread for the GFS and Canadian...

The red numbers are low pressure centers for the different ensemble runs and the areas that are in darker shades represent the "spread". The spread is basically saying alot of the individual ensembles members are further to the west of the ensemble mean. Translation, there is a high degree in uncertainty in the track of this storm, and it could trend west.

 I am going to pound the table here and remind everyone that we are 132 hours out from this storm threat! Of course the models can be right in saying this is a weaker and offshore storm but accepting that as the end all be all scenario at this time would be premature.

 No, not just because I want it to snow, but I really like this pattern for the reasons I discussed over the last week. Also, we all know that until the energy comes onto the field tomorrow the models really do not have a handle on how this situation will evolve. The ensembles above are telling us that! We need more clarity on how and if the northern stream will be amplified enough and phase with the southern stream. Some of our best storms are the ones that trend at the last second from minimal events to major threats. Will that happen this time? I have no idea but I think the smart thing to do here is see the trend over the next day and a half. Once we get to tomorrow afternoon I believe we can determine if its worth throwing in the towel or getting excited.

Stay tuned, I will update on twitter today if I can. 

Monday Morning: An Updated look at the Ingredients Behind Potential Big Storm Sunday

Good morning, as promised I wanted to give an update on the threat of a winter storm late this upcoming weekend. In my post last week, I mentioned how we needed to keep a close eye on this threat because it was showing hints at the upper air signature required for major storm development. A few days have gone by and those hints are still there and starting to produce a few plausible scenarios for this storm. This is the first time this season that we will have colder air to work with ahead of the storm. This is a big change from all the other storm threats we have received this season. The big question mark now is will the cold air be the saving grace or will it be too strong and sheer the storm out to sea. Let's take a look at the drivers.

The image above is the GFS models projection of energy in the upper atmosphere 48 hours before this potential storm. Lets review the updated ingredients we are working with.

• A western ridge in the jet stream.
• this supports a trough to develop down stream and increases the chances that a northern jet stream component will dive down into the flow. A very essential ingredient to an east coast storm
• Energy on the field!
• Looking at the two red circles you can see we have disturbances or energy in the jet stream. The circle on the bottom represents the southern branch jet stream energy and the circle to the north is the northern jet stream energy. All big storms usualy phase the two. You can see in this image that they are both heading on the right path. 
• This is basically a split flow in the jet stream
• Looking to the top right corner of this image we have a very critical ingredient which is a low pressure system over eastern Canada.
• This is one of the most important factors in my opinion because it is the key to where the high pressure system ahead of the storm is placed. The reason is its placement over eastern Canada results in something called a confluence zone to its west. In a confluence zone you tend to see high pressure develop at the surface.
• This high pressure system supply the cold air for the storm! 
• With out this 50/50 low any high pressure area will be allowed to just slide off short and the cold air leaves
• You can see I labeled the high pressure system to the 50/50 low's west. The placement of this low stops the cold high from sliding offshore too quickly.
• Along with a 50/50 low we usually have a negative NAO to go with it. Models are hinting that this could happen as well. 
• A negative NAO is high pressure over Greenland. This high pressure helps buckle the jet stream south and aids in the supply of cold air. 

So you can see the many factors we look for in a major east coast storm are present. However, its never that easy. Getting a major storm requires all these ingredients to come together perfectly. For example, if that high pressure center is too strong due to the confluence zone being too far south it suppresses the storm out to sea similar to what the Canadian model is showing.

This is certainly a possibility, but I think the Canadian is a little too extreme with this suppressed scenario. 

The european model is more agressive with placing all these ingredients in a more favorable position. The result is a low pressure center that is closer to the coast and results in heavy snow for many areas including near the coast..

Turning to the GFS, it is similar to the european but not as strong with the storm..

So all these models will now start to flip flop with their surface projections of this storm. The important thing that I will be studying is the evolution of those factors way up in the atmosphere which produce the surface outcomes. Right now its a matter of do we get a major storm or do we get a suppressed non-storm scenario. I know I have a bias to want snow but I think this storm occurs. The reason is I think once all the energy is sampled properly by the models, we wills see a more aggressive upper air setup in particular a more stronger northern disturbance than what is modeled.  Regardless, whether this pans out or not we have a lot of potential right behind it for Xmas week. We look to be in for a while ride!

Stay tuned I will keep you guys updated daily on this threat via this blog and twitter. 

Gone skiing, New post about next weekend storm late tonight

Saturday Morning: When the upper air pattern is there, you need to beware!

Good morning, as a follow up to yesterdays post, we have a favorable upper air setup for late next weekend and even all of Christmas week. This increases the chances for cold,snow and potentially a white Christmas. There will be up to two storm threats Christmas week, but lets focus real quick again on the threat I discussed yesterday for late next weekend.

I explained the ingredients necessary for a east coast winter storm in the last post when we take a look up to 18,000ft in the atmosphere. For today, lets look at surface projections for next weekend from three different models.

GFS

Canadian

European

All three major models are hinting at a storm developing late next weekend. The exact details still need to unfold, but I am discussing this threat because the upper air pattern supports it. Thus, the potential is real this time for a colder storm. All due to how the ingredients below end up coming together..

More to come.

Friday Morning: Evaluating a real potential winter storm set up

Quick post this morning, but I wanted to show you the period I am keeping an eye on. In general the end  December should be very stormy. The first potential I see for an east coast storm is late next weekend. I will explain why below this image.

You often hear me talk about upper air setups being favorable or not favorable for a winter storm. Above is the European model's ensemble projected out to 216 hours. I want to point our a few critical components that it is trying to hint at. Keep in mind these components do not have to be in the perfect position this far out, I am just looking for them to be in roughly the right area knowing the model can potentially correct.

• Starting from the left we see we have a potential ridge developing out west. The ridge is not in the perfect position in this image but its close enough this far out. A ridge out west causes a trough in the east. We want that trough over the immediate west coast to be a little more offshore as this evolves
• Moving on you can see we have a nice impulse of southern stream energy due to the split flow in the jet stream. This gives us our fuel for a storm. The ridge out west increases the potential for a colder polar disturbance from the northern jet to potentiall dive down and combine w this southern stream energy.
• A critical factor to mostly all big east coasts storm is something called a 50/50 low. 50/50 refers to its coordinates. This low is key because it creates something called a confluence zone to its west. In simple terms this favors high pressure to form in eastern canada/new england and the low to its east prevents the high pressure from sliding offshore. Thus, the cold air is locked in place. We did not have this with the last storm hence the big cold high slid off shore.
• A 50/50 low ususally goes in tandum with a negative NAO which is the last component I pointed out on the image above. A negative NAO is a ridge of high pressure near Greenland. It serves to cause the cold air to pour into the eastern US from the arctic. 

Right now models project a storm develops in the central us and runs into that area of  cold high pressure. Becuase the high pressure blocks the storm it then is projected to redevelop over the eastern USA.This would mean this potential storm would be classified as a Miller B. We are still very far out and this may not happen, but I just wanted to show you guys the ingredients we need for snow closer to the coast. Ingredients that we have not had yet so for this year. Right now late December is our best shot. Lets see how this trends over the next week.

Here is the Canadian models projection for the same time at the surface.

More as the days go by. 

Thursday Morning: Will Late December Bring Snow to Mid Atlantic?

The jury is still out on that, but I am expecting a colder pattern to set in just before Christmas. The models are trying to hint at this..

Here is the projected upper air setup for Xmas morning..

The key is the projected ridge to develop out west along with the blocking high pressure or ridge projected to develop near Greenland. Those two components are key for cold and storminess along the east coast. Right now we did not have the blocking over Greenland which is why the storm was warmer this week for many areas near the coast. Based on the stratospheric influences I discussed earlier in the month I would be surprised if a pattern similar to this did not take hold before January 1. 

In terms of storms, I have my eyes on a few periods up to Xmas but I am not ready to jump on anything yet. We should have 1 or 2 shots over the next 3 weeks. Hopefully this yields a white Christmas. 

In terms of the last storm, many areas in NY, and VT did quite well yesterday. Killington ski resort reported 2 feet for the storm. It was the NJ and eastern PA areas that got ripped off even in terms of rainfall amounts. 

More in the days to come as I study this pattern. I do not want to jump on any storm threats unless I think we got a realistic chance. Once and if we build the Greenland block its game on!

Snow Totals so Far: More to Come for NY State Today

Above are snow totals though this morning. Notice all the snow is in the mountain ranges from yesterday (some is cut off on the map). This is not a surprise. Snow will continue today for NY state and VT adding to accumulations. Lower elevations areas get the snow today at well. 

Current radar:

I got to run but I will update things this evening and also take a look at the long range. 

10PM Update: The back end snow band will be to the north in NY state, storm is weaker for NJ and PA

Sorry guys, I like to say it how it is. I mean come on lol the moon is out right now in many areas lets not be ridiculous. Overall the Ski country at the high elevations will get what I expected of 12+ and 6- maybe 12 at lower elevations when its all said and done. Aside from that, this storm was really not a big deal for NJ and PA in terms of intensity. CT had some impressive wind with the rain today but lets be honest, it was nothing to write home about. For NJ we got the 2+ of rain but most of it came in the morning and by the afternoon it was just a normal rainy day. We did not look outside and say "wow what a storm".

Snow continues tomorrow in upstate NY and VT where several more inches will accumulate due to backlash snows. For NJ and PA snow is possible but no impressive accumulations. I guess I was right with my ideas to the north but I really did think for one the rain would be more intense during the day in NJ and PA and also that we had a shot at a few inches on the back end in those areas. This just shows you how unpredictable the weather is. Maybe that is why I keep coming back to track the next storm. There is always that uncertainty which makes it exciting. If you want snow guys, we need the correct upper air pattern in place which includes cold air ahead of a storm. 9 times out of 10 if you do not have that you will not get snow. It will come this year, we just need to be patient. Until then, drive up to ski country. 

I will update in the am with what the totals have been so far and projected additional totals. 

Thanks for checking in. 

Tuesday Morning: The Storm is Underway,Who will Get Lucky Tomorrow?

Good morning, as the sun rises today our storm is starting to intensify. Rain is now spreading through most areas with some snow to the north.

By 1pm today you can see the storm reaching ski country with snow breaking out in the mountain regions. Looking below you can see how this high resolution model is picking up on the snow at the high elevations and rain at the lower elevations up north. It is basically outlining the Catskill, Adirondack, and Green Mountains in blue which is snow. This makes sense to me.

By the time we get to 7pm below our low pressure center starts to stall around Long Island and colder air is starting to wrap into the storm..

Here is where the forecast still remains uncertain as we transition to back-end snows from the cutoff low. This is what a cutoff low looks like..

Below are some model projections of the snow area from that developing band by the time we get to tomorrow morning..From left to right is the GFS,NAM and Canadian models around 1pm tomorrrow

In general the European which I am not showing is closest the the GFS and NAM with back-end snows hitting central and eastern PA, Northwestern NJ and parts of upstate NY. The Canadian is more focused on upstate NY. The differences are due to where the model projects the cutoff low will be at this time. Cutoff lows are hard to predict so naturally there is some spread in options. In any case, someone is getting lucky tomorrow and can have a surprise amount of snow while other areas get nothing.

Snowfall projections from the GFS are below. You can see how it shows the accumulations from that back end band in PA bleeding into NJ.

The European is not far off from these totals. I will be keeping an eye on how this storm evolves and the updated projections for tomorrows snow as the day progresses. Overall, I like the forecast I have from yesterday. Again ELEVATION IS A BIG ROLE FOR THIS STORM. So the higher in elevation you are and the further you are into the heart of New England, the more snow you are going to get in the ranges below. Ski country I think we are looking at 14-20 inches.

I will update on twitter today and have an updated blog post around 10pm. Unfortunately for many of us, enjoy the heavy rain and wind today!