Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Wednesday Update: A Glimmer of Winter Hope?

Summary:


  • Warm end to the week
  • Cold front arrives Saturday making it feel like February again
  • A storm can develop on the back of this cold front Saturday night into Sunday
    • Snow is possible but at this time I favor areas to the north or a minor snow event further south as the two scenerios
  • Impressive warmth returns next week
  • We get one more shot at winter in the end of February into March as a -NAO pattern develops
    • This pattern which features high pressure over Greenland allows cold to pool up and get locked in along the east coast ahead of approaching storms
  • Time is running out for winter so this is our last glimmer of hope


Good morning. Well, just as I called off winter a few days back the models are trying to hint that mother nature might have a few more tricks up her sleeve before this is all said and done. 

It all starts off this weekend as a cold front swings through...


In the wake of very warm temperatures to end this week (with some rain Friday) this will make it feel like February again Saturday.

Now here comes the tricky part- models are indicating a low pressure system may spin up along this front Saturday night into Sunday...


Yes, you are seeing snow on this projection above for  parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. 

So do i buy it at this time? Well, looking at the pattern we do have what seems to be a very progressive flow. with a lot of energy on the field..


The key is how does that dip in energy behave that you see above in the northeast. 

Right now I think two scenarios are plausible


  • This trends more north giving New England and maybe parts of the Mid-Atlantic snowfall Sunday morning
    • areas to the south would be rain
  • This trends flatter causing limited impacts which could mean light accumulations to the south

I just do not see an amplified pattern to support the cold air staying locked in for areas like Phili, NYC, CNJ to see anything from this. In any event, we got something to track here that can throw a few surprises.

In the wake of this system the blast of warmth returns next week...


This will result in many 60's for highs in the Mid-Atlantic next week. 

So is that it?

Well, we got one more interesting thing evolving for the end of Feb into March, The return of the -NAO pattern. This is a pattern that has been absent for a few years now and is a critical puzzle piece needed to increase the chances for cold and stormy weather in the east.

In a -NAO pattern you get high pressure to develop over Greenland which buckles the jet stream in the east allowing cold air to lock in ahead of storms. Models are now indicating we can see this pattern develop quite impressively...

Will this provide us with the 4th quarter comeback to winter we need? We will have about a two week period to get it done by the time this pattern occurs (hard to snow by the 3rd week of March). That is not a lot of time but at least we have a glimmer of hope for winter weather lovers.

Stay tuned.

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