Winter Storm Outlook


Threat Level: Low
Period: Jan 27th-28th
updated 1/21

Saturday, October 28, 2017

Saturday Morning Storm Update

Good Morning. Our big rain storm is on track and will pack quite the punch tomorrow. Recent model guidance has actually moved towards the more aggressive European solution which develops a strong low pressure system and moves it right up the coast tomorrow afternoon/night.

Showers break out late tonight...

By later Sunday morning more consistent periods of rain move in as the front hovers over our area...

By Sunday afternoon into the night a strong low pressure system develops along this front....

This is where very heavy rain and high winds can be expected. For inland areas gusts over 35mph are likely. For areas at the coast especially Long Island into the shores of southern New England we can see a much higher wind speeds and gusts.

The European model is really aggressive with its wind gust forecast Sunday night...

This is very likely overdone. However, I still expect very high wind gusts at the coast just not 75 mph.  I like gusts of 50+ are more likely for the south facing shorelines with gusts of 35+ at times inland. 

When it is all said and done most areas see 2-4" of rain. 

In its wake the cold arctic air arrives making way for a very chilly Halloween. 

Friday, October 27, 2017

A Closer Look at Sunday's Rain Storm

Good morning. We will have a good old fashioned rain storm to deal with Sunday. A big frontal system will start approaching from the west Saturday night...

By Sunday morning periods of rain heavy rain break out region wide...

Expect winds to pick up, gusting as high as 35 mph in many areas during the day.

The next move is a low pressure system to develop along this front and those details still need to be ironed out. The current gfs shows the low develop off shore later Sunday then hook into New England...

The European model is much more aggressive developing this low further west and tracks it inland...

I am not buying this scenario right now as I think the European is showing a bias here. The GFS scenario seems more realistic which means that low hooks back in like this...

Regardless, this is still an impactful event and will drop heavy amounts of rain (1-4") and wind to many areas including NJ. 

In its wake we have a very cold air mass that moves in which will make it feel like late November!

More on this tomorrow as we get more model data. 

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Big Rain Storm On Tap Sunday

Tis the season for big storms to start developing. On Sunday, we have quite an impressive system that will be moving through the eastern US. Expect heavy rain and very gusty winds all day. In its wake, expect much colder conditions as a impressive arctic air mass works its way into the region. 

I will have more on this tomorrow morning...

Friday, October 20, 2017

The Official 2018 Winter Outlook

Here is the full version of my Winter Outlook 2018

Welcome to the 2018 Winter Outlook. Below you will find the bottom line forecast followed by a detailed video on how I came up with my prediction this year. 

So lets get to it.....

Expected Temperatures:

Expected Snowfall:

Winter Highlights:

  • There will be a lot of activity this winter but it will be confined to a few key areas
    • The hardest hit spots should be the Pacific northwest, Northern Rocky Mountains, and the Northern Plains into interior New England.
    • Winter should come on quick this year in December which will be a contrast compared to the last two winters.
  • For New England
    • Not exceptionally cold but very snowy especially in the interior.
    • Areas near the coast should see above average snow but the core of the heaviest snowfall relative to averages stays more inland due to influences from a ridge of high pressure.
    • Ski areas should do great 
  • For the Mid-Atlantic
    • A mixed bag this year
    • Average temperatures for the northern Mid-Atlantic and slightly above average for southern Mid-Atlantic (Balt/Wash, Phili)
    • Expect average snowfall overall with slightly above average to the north and below average to the south
    • Overall similar to last winter in terms of snowfall amounts but slightly cooler and the chance for areas to the NW to see enhanced snowfall (edge of the light blue)
  • For the Southeast
    • Warmer than normal temperatures with limited snowfall this year
    • This will be due to a persistent ridge of high pressure working its way onshore frequently 
    • Non eventful overall
  • For the Pacific Northwest into the Rocky Mountains
    • Very active this year with well above normal snowfall
  • For the Central US into the Great Lakes Region
    • Average winter to the south but cold and snowy to the north
    • Coldest air relative to averages should be in the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes this year.

The Video Breaking Down the Rational 

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

The 2018 Winter Outlook: First Glance

Good morning! Well that time of year is finally here when we speculate on what the winter season ahead may bring. Below is my map release of the Winter 2018 Outlook. A detailed Discussion will follow on Friday.

Overall I expect an active winter with the worst conditions in the Pacific Northwest including all Mountain areas, the northern central US, and interior New England. These places will have the coldest conditions with the most snowfall. This will be a very ski friendly winter coast to coast.

For southern New England I expect a decent winter with slightly cooler than normal temps and slightly above average snowfall.

For the Mid-Atlantic I think average is the word with normal temps and normal snowfall. Areas more south (orange zone) expect a warmer winter with lower than normal snowfall. 

I will have a video breakdown along with the rational behind this forecast out Friday. 

Monday, October 9, 2017

Monday: Rain Ends Later Today, Seasonable Weather Arrives Wednesday


Good morning. The remnants of hurricane Nate are moving through our area and will last into this afternoon...

Rain should end by late afternoon giving way to muggy conditions to end the day. 

Warm air then stays on tap until later on Tuesday when a cold front moves through the region...

This will bring a nice fall chill back into the air for the second part of the week. 

The pattern then remains fairly transient over the next week. We will have periods of warmer than normal then shots of seasonable to maybe slightly below move through. 

Remember the Winter Outlook is out next week. Thanks for reading. 

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Working on Winter Outlook

Limited posting over the next week or so as I start to finalize my Winter Outlook 2018. It will be out a week from Monday on October 16th. Stay tuned!

Will still have a post here or there in the meantime.