Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Tuesday Morning Update: Chill Continues Today, Update on Next Week

Well it finally feels like winter out there! Another cold morning is upon us. Temps are in the mid to upper 20's in many areas off the coast right now and will not climb far into the 40's as the day progresses. Temps will begin to moderate as we head towards Thanksgiving where we finally get into the 50's Thursday and Friday. Thanksgiving weekend will be ranging from the high 40's to low 50's 

Looking ahead to next weeks active weather there where some decent trends that developed yesterday and last night. At this time, any storm that develops is likely to not bring any winter threat to the Mid-Atlantic. New England however is still in play in my opinion. 


To start here was the European ensemble from Monday morning..


Now the new image from this morning below..


Few things to notice here. For one there is more ridging on the east coast so the energy is no longer bundling (blue shades) near the coast. Instead it get pulled back further west. This is due mainly to the northern jet stream not being as involved due to a flatter ridge over Canada which you also might see comparing the two.  The result of this is a storm next week that develops well inland near the lakes..


At the end of the day this will prob still change. The reason is because there is a lot for the model to handle. We have a split flow jet stream and a bug cutoff low to deal with next week influencing this set up. In situations like this we will see a lot of flip flopping. Regardless tho, I do not expect any type of winter event to effect the Mid-Atlantic. If anything, we might end up seeing a primary low cut near the lakes and a secondary redevelop over New England. This gives the Ski Areas a shot at snow. 

As I mentioned yesterday this is going to be a big back and forth pattern through December. Given this volatility, we will have a lot of action to keep following. Whether or not its snow remains to be seen this early in the season. 

4 comments:

  1. Good Afternoon!
    Any position on this weekend in Southern VT? Headed up for the weekend and NOAA is calling for possible rain...
    I waited 8 months for this day!



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nothing to be too concerned about. It will rain a little Friday night but not a washout. It clear out by Saturday morning and colder air arrives till Sunday afternoon. So they will prob resume snowmaking Saturday.

      Delete
  2. Thank you! Hope you will be hitting the slopes soon too.
    Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.

    ReplyDelete