Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Tuesday Morning Update: Accumulating Snow for Lakes Region, First Flakes Possible Elsewhere

Good morning. As a follow up to yesterdays post I wanted to focus on the weekend and early next week. I mentioned how the models were trending a little stronger with energy that was coming in on the northern jet stream and because of that we had to be on the lookout for a stronger storm system then modeled. Since yesterday the trend has leveled off. This means there will be a storm system that effects the Great Lakes especially Michigan and also parts of interior New England with some snow. Closer to the coast we actually do have the chance at some rain showers and maybe even some flurries for areas just off the coast Sunday. It does not look like this initial wave will develop into a big coastal storm however. That would have required even more amplification of the jet stream which will not occur. 

To start off here where initial model projections for Sunday before the stronger trend started..

Now here is the updated projection for Sunday night. Notice more focused area of low pressure near the lakes. This will put down a few inches of snow for Michigan and some areas just to the east. 

As we get to Sunday afternoon, we can see snow up in VT,NH and flurries in other areas..

Here is the accumulation map through Monday..

Looking below notice that area of rain off the coast. That is additional energy and there is a chance it can interact with the backside of the trough from the first system Monday seen below with low pressure off shore..

It appears most of this second wave stays off shore and does not develop into another storm on Monday. That can change but at this time I do not support that. In any event all of this ushers in very  cold air this weekend and early next week..

By Monday highs will be only in low 40's and lows at night below freezing in many spots. Below is 1pm Monday..

All of this is the start of this pattern change I have been talking about. When patterns change it is always a gradual transition. As I continue to look at the models, I see us on the way to our winter pattern I discussed in my winter forecast.So what does this mean?

It means that starting this weekend we will see swings in our weather pattern from mild to cold vice versa through the end of the month. In fact, we might even see temps moderate a little as we get to end of next week just to see them get cold again by the following week.  

Below shows long term model projections and I want you to focus on one thing the big ridge over Alaska just off the west coast.

Anytime I see that I know the central to eastern part of the US is facing the threat of colder than normal conditions. That red or ridging you see of the east coast does not concern me. In the end I believe we will have more cold days than warm from a pattern like this due to that -EPO. 

In the end this whole process of our seasonal pattern change will take a few weeks but like I said expect a lot of back and forth weather in the meantime. As always, we will keep an outlook for any storms that might be on the horizon. For now its this system on Sunday and the slim chance for more coastal interaction early next week.

Thanks for reading. 

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