Good morning everyone. I am becoming more concerned that a coastal storm can develop late this weekend along the eastern seaboard. Right now this is more of a speculative post, but the trends I have seen in the last 36 hours especially with the European model hint that we need to be on the lookout.
The situation is the following. We have a big front coming through on Thursday with rain as I mentioned yesterday. In the wake of this front cold air sweeps into the region as shown by the blue colors. This is ingredient #1. Always need cold air.
Also, we have some blocking in the jet stream to the north indicated below over Greenland. This slows down the jet stream.
The yellow circle represents energy in the northern jet stream that is projected to dive down from Canada Saturday and Sunday. Since we have an area of high pressure over Greenland and a sharper ridge than modeled previously out west this energy MIGHT dig into the east coast and consolidate into a storm.
As an example take a look at the difference between this energy on old model runs vs new ones. I want you to notice how in the new runs the ridge or red in the western US is sharper and the blue is more consolidated..
Again looking above notice the ridge out west gets sharper w each run and the blue near the east coast gets more focused or consolidated. This is a trend that could mean we see a coastal storm if it continues. Other models are flirting with this idea but do not have it yet, but as you all know when I see the euro start to trend I tend to take notice.
So what does it mean? At this time I say we have a 45% chance as a storm developing. IF the storm develops it looks to be rain near the coast and snow for interior New England at this time. No, I am not calling for a Mid Atlantic snowstorm, that would be way too premature given the uncertainty here.
Regardless we got our first potential storm on the boards to track of the season! You will not hear much about this yet in mainstream until and if these trends get stronger just know we need to keep a close eye on this.
More tonight, stay tuned.