Monday, November 16, 2015

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: A Move to Cold and Stormy

Good morning everyone. Well, over the last week I have been trying to explain how we could be looking at a potential pattern change between the 19th and 30th. After further review this indeed will be the case. Starting on Saturday cold air will start to move in and mother nature will remind us all of what season it really is. As we head into Thanksgiving week we will also have to watch out for potential storm activity along with this pattern change. There is  also a good shot many areas see their first flake of the season next week especially up in New England. This pattern might then relax a little after Thanksgiving until the real winter pattern will set in by 2nd week of  December or so. 

Before we get there we will have somewhat milder conditions through Friday. Expect temps to be mostly in the 50's The warmest day might be Thursday with temperatures reaching the low 60's. This will be due to another big storm system effecting the central and western part of the country..

Colorado will be seeing more snow and to the east notice the big line of thunderstorms that can develop as we get into Wednesday and Thursday. This front will work its way east and effect our area Thursday with rain..

It is in the wake of this front that cold air will work its way into our area for the weekend and into next week. This is our pattern change.  The interesting thing is we are gong to have to watch for potential storm development later in the weekend to early next week. I see this mainly as a light snow threat for Interior New England. At the very least I think many of those areas have the shot for a few inches of snow by early next week. For areas more towards the coast I am not ruling out some flurries early next week!

Right now, there is not storm really on the map for late next weekend but not much would have to change for some sort of low pressure center to develop.  Looking below, we do have a lot of energy on the field..

I circled two impulses in the northern jet stream next weekend and also highlighted blocking high pressure over Greenland (-NAO) and a ridge of high pressure forming off the west cost. At this time no storm develops because the ridge is too far west and the energy never has the change to "dig" enough to phase into a bigger storm. However with that block over Greenland it would take much to change out west for the scenario later this week into early next week to result in a more focused storm with potential snow for inland areas. I will be keeping an eye on this all week to see if anything evolves.

To pull this all together and give you an overall picture of this pattern change next week the image below should to the job..

Notice we have red over Greenland and Alaska. This represents high pressure and directs the cold air south into the central and eastern United States. I show with the arrows the flow of the atmosphere. You can see how the areas of high pressure over AK and Greenland cause the cold air in Canada to funnel south. This is the opposite pattern we are currently in seen below..

So the bottom line here is that the seasons are changing. Next week feels more like late fall and do not be surprised to see a snowflake or two. No big storm threats at this time, but we can not rule out that scenario changing as we will have a lot of energy on the field next week with cold air to play with. 

That's all for now, I should have more frequent updates this week as this evolves. Exciting times ahead!

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