So lets get right into it. Like last year this will be split into two sections:
- The bottom line consolidated forecast
- For those of you who do not care about the details and just want the know what to expect
- The explanation behind the forecast
- For those of you who want to understand how I made this forecast
- I break many of the factors down in a short video below.
Preface: Results from Last Winter
Here where the results of my forecast last year. On the left where my projected temps on the right where the actual results.
The 2016 Consolidated Forecast
Winter 2016 Temperatures
- Slightly cooler= 1-2 degrees below normal
- Cold= 2-3 degrees below normal
- Warm= 1-3 degrees above normal
- Much Warmer= 3-5 degrees above normal
Winter 2016 Snowfall
Note: 1.3x means 30% more snow than normal.
Winter 2016 Jet Stream Configuration
- Winter gets off to slow start this year in December.
- Cold air then begins to consistently build in the south central and eastern US by Jan and Feb.
- There is evidence March could be an active month as well.
- It will not snow as frequently as last year.
- Much of the above average snowfall will come from 1-2 major coastal storms due to merging jet streams
- February will be the coldest month relative to averages and December the warmest month.
- Winter will back off at times with mild temperatures giving more relief compared to last year
- For skiers, expect another good season up in New England and above average snowfall for the Sierra Nevada's and Southern Rockies.
Here is a map that shows average snowfall for the country if you want something to compare my map to. Click to make it bigger.
Also, average snowfall for NJ- add 15-30% for the snowfall this year
The Detailed Forecast
Every year there are a variety of factors we need to look at when trying to project something as chaotic as mother nature. Those factors include:
- El Nino Southern Oscillation
- Other Ocean Temperature Patterns
- Snow Growth in Eurasia
- Stratospheric Wind Patterns (QBO)
- Seasonal Modeling
- Sun Activity
I listed these factors in the order of their importance for THIS season. There is no question the evolving and potentially record challenging El Nino will drive many of the weather patterns this winter. However, we are seeing an overall set up that we really do not have a historical comparison to as it relates to the overall sea surface temperatures (sst) pattern. Not to mention, every El Nino is unique in terms of the placement of the the warmest sst and the corresponding effect on the jet stream.
In the short video below I outline the methodology of my forecast and discuss the 6 factors above.