Thursday, October 1, 2015

Thursday Night Tropical Update: Game, Set, Match!

Thanks for checking in again everyone. Well I hinted at this in the morning and now I can tell you that it is likely Hurricane Joaquin will sleep with the fishes. Literally, after it ravages the Bahamas (not a good situation) this storm will track east and out to sea. For those of you who read my morning post this is Scenario 3 playing out.  I will put it to you this way, if this was a football game and I was a betting man, I would give the models that still have this storm hitting the coast a 15 point spread vs European model.  So yes there is a chance this still can hit the coast but I now have enough information to now tell you guys it is highly unlikely.

In terms of model performance, this image literally sums it up below:

It now appears the European weather model will score an epic victory against all other model guidance which are now folding into its camp.

I cut a quick video below (under 3 min) explaining the situation and ALSO what could still bring this back to land (unlikely). Enjoy and thanks again for all the site visits!

To be certain, please check in tomorrow morning. I will have a quick update in case there are any drastic changes. If this does change then so be it, I will take it on the chin but we are at a point now where I want to give you guys an actual forecast that's more than a day out. 



  1. Yup, looks like the Euro may get a big win here, looks like almost all of the 0Z model runs are converging with it. BUT . . . we still need the big turn to actually happen. The 8pm report is saying WSW at 5 mph . . . slowing down, but we still need to see the actual pivot to the north and then NE. Definitely, give the Euro credit -- it did give the western-most turning point a few days ago. Hopefully the people in the Bahamas took that seriously and got prepared, as man, they are really getting hit. But now it's go time for the Euro and its wanna-be imitators. The actual big turn (or not-so-big-turn, unlikely as that seems) for Joaquin won't get digested until the 06Z runs at best (12Z for Euro, I thought that the Euro was on a 12 hr cycle). At Cat-4, with such high energy levels, the steering dynamics might get a big chaotic (geek-swag on my part, admittedly, not being an atmosphere and climate dynamics expert). So, I'm guessing that we ain't completely out of the woods until we see how this big turn goes and how the models digest it. Till then, stay dry! (Still some interesting weather happening locally over the next 60 hours). PS, love that cartoon. UKMET and CMC must also be in the room somewhere chewing on their pencils. Jim G

    1. We are currently witnessing the turn. We should see this move out of that capture zone today. But your are right its its such a big dynamic storm that we need to wait till end of today to be 100% sure. And yeah the Bahamas really got beat up. I love that cartoon, its classic. I saw someone use it on twitter and had to pick it up. Thanks for following.