Thursday, October 29, 2015

Thursday Morning Weather Thought: Warm Today, Chilly This Weekend, Warmer Long Range

Good morning everyone. I wanted to give a quick update on the short and long range. I will elaborate on these thoughts over the next week. Temps will be on the warmer side today reaching near 70! However cold air will come in for the weekend. Highs in the low 50's Friday-Sunday with lows in the 30's for many areas.

The pattern then will shift in the longer range. I originally was speculating that November would start off warm then possibly get colder. At this time I can not still support that as we head from November 1-7th. The reason is simple- overwhelming model consensus on a Positive Arctic Oscillation developing. 

A positive Arctic Oscillation unlike a negative AO means lower than normal pressures near the pole. This locks in the cold air to the north. Diagram below explains:

Now related to that image here are model projections:

Notice all the blue up near the pole, that represents a positive AO and locks the cold air north. I have been watching this last few days and the trends are very strong from all models. Here is an idea of the GFS Ensembles projection of the next two weeks:

Whats the bottom line? I am now very confident that for at least the first 7 days of November we will see warmer than normal weather! Past that period, I will discuss in another discussion.

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