Friday, October 2, 2015

Friday Morning Storm Check Up: On Track

Good morning. My thoughts discussed last night are on track. Hurricane Joaquin has begun to slowly take its turn northeast and it should avoid any interaction with the trough that is over the United States. Mostly all major models are in this camp now. I will mention there are a few outliers, but the models that are outliers are the worst skill scoring models such as the Canadian below..

For some reason those outlier models still want to capture this hurricane from the digging southeast trough..

You can see overall however the updated model spread below showing the strong signal out to sea..

Since last night the National Hurricane Center has also adjusted their track east..

So it now looks like as difficult as this forecast was everything is now consolidating around the out to sea scenario. Regardless tho, this storm is a still monster right now..

Given that there still are a few models showing the landfall scenario we really want to wait for this storm to move out of the "capture zone" today before giving the 100% all clear signal. Regardless, the chances of this turning in to shore are less that 20%. 

On another note, rain and wind are currently battering most areas of the east coast from our frontal system that is stalled over the area..

This is an issue in its own right right where some areas are looking at multiple inches of rain. Notice however the sharp cutoff to the north. That is due to strong high pressure pressing on the front. This rain will continue for most areas into tomorrow morning. 

Moving into the longer range pattern which I will cover sometime this week, we are looking at seasonable conditions along the east coast over next two weeks with the chance  at a few cold shots. 

Thanks for checking in. As I said it looks like we are all clear but we want to observe this hurricane completely move out of the "capture zone" before striking up the band.

Quick update later and thanks for reading. 


  1. Yup, JQ's turn is looking good, NW at 3 mph at 5 am, 936 pressure (!!!!). 06Z NAM is still in dream-land ("in my mind I'm goin' to Carolina", remember James Taylor?). Interesting that some synoptic models (like NAM and CMC) are relevant in winter, but just don't cut it regarding tropical storms. ALTHOUGH, the 06Z GEFS still has some "renegade" scenarios, including Outer Banks, DelMar, Connecticut (with a close shave off the NJ Coast), and Cape Cod. Hopefully by 12Z it will all pretty much be in synch. Hopefully. The 06Z main GFS run indicates little to no precip here in northern NJ from JQ !! Jim G

    1. Insane how bad the CMC, NAM, and Hurricane models are. The GFS was poor too but at least it jumped on the bandwagon sooner. I will say tho Jim do not underestimate the UKMET! It was first to follow Euro. And you know what back for the big NYC blizzard miss last winter UKMET hinted at that too. I think bottom line is when UKMET and Euro agree its a powerful forecasting tool. Thanks for checking in.