Monday, October 26, 2015

A Fall Like Week Gives Way to Rain Wednesday, Cooler for Halloween Weekend

Good morning everyone. Believe it or not we are already in the last week of October. At this time of year we begin to recognize weather patterns form and hone in on what the winter could bring. In case you missed it, I discussed my thoughts on Winter 2016 last week. You can see a link on the top of the website to that column. 

Looking ahead to this week, today and Tuesday will start off calm with temperatures in the mid to high 50's. As we get into Wednesday, we will have a rain storm to deal with. This rain storm is a result of moisture originally associated with Hurricane Patricia that hit Mexio late last week. It will ride the jet stream and pass due west of our area Wednesday..

Wednesday will be on and off rain for most of the day. The rain will taper off by early Thursday. This storm will get quite intense once it merges with a digging trough up in Canada, but that will not be our concern. The storm will bring in some temp. warm air for Thursday. 

Moving on things will cool down a little as we head into to Halloween weekend..

Expect temps to be in the low to mid 50's with colder conditions at night through Sunday.

We then approach the long range pattern. I am not going to lie the jury is still out on this. The models keep consisting we get warmer with a trough over the west and a ridge of high pressure over our area..

I agree with this assessment for the first few days of November. However, I do think we see the shot at some more colder than normal weather sometime in the November 5th-10th time frame. In fact, I would not be surprised to see another storm form somewhere in the eastern 1/3 of the country in that time frame.  For a more technical discussion on this see below:

Right now here are long term model projections for the 5th to 10th period. I edited the map to show what could change with the arrows. Yes, it is speculation of course but after 7 days these models have been all over the place so I am fine speculating..

Right now it is anyone's guess how this long term pattern will evolve. If you just go by the models it looks like a warmer than normal period. However, I am not ready to jump on this yet until I see the model evolution though the middle of this week. Is it wishcasting?  I don't think so because like I said I am basing this on how the models handled the peroid we are entering now 10 days ago. They where way off and not to mention we are in phase 2 of the MJO (a pattern that influences the jet stream)..

Which could support a pattern like this..

Compared to the model projections of this..

So as you can see there is reason to be speculative of the models for the long range.

More later this week as we track this evolve!

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