Thursday, July 2, 2015

Thursday Night Holiday Weekend Weather Update: Not a Good Trend

Well, it appears now the trend is not in favor of excellent weather for this holiday weekend. As I discussed in my post earlier in the week, we are dealing with a large scale pattern supportive of unsettled weather along with a stalled front to the south of us. I explained how based on how upper air energy interacts with this front will determine if we are wet or dry. The trends in the last 24 hours have been stronger with the upper level energy thus the low pressure system is projected to develop more to the north on Saturday. This means the chance of showers and more clouds than sun.

Lets take a look..

Old GFS for Saturday..

New GFS (other models including the Euro trending north)..

This is NOT the trend I want to see 24 hours out.

Look at the difference in the "Dig" in the upper air energy projection compared to earlier runs..

Old GFS..

New GFS..

It might be hard to see but the bottom image has a sharper dig to it and that is helping bring this low pressure north more along with the stalled front. 

Here is the bottom line:

  • There is an increased chance of rain for Saturday the 4th. 
  • This threat of showers is mainly during the day not at night
  • Expect mostly cloudy conditions Saturday
  • Skies should clear by the time the fireworks go off Saturday night 
  • Sunday looks like a beautiful day 

Thanks for checking in. If anything changes in tonight model runs I will update tomorrow. Enjoy the holiday weekend!

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