Thursday, July 30, 2015

Thursday Weather Update: Front Arrives Later Today, Weekend Looking Nice

Good morning everyone. As a follow up to my Monday post, a cold front will be arriving later this afternoon causing showers and storms to develop over the region. This is not a particularly strong cold front so temps will be reduced a little going into the weekend but the biggest factor the humidity will decrease more. 

The image below represents the period from 2-5pm. You can see the model projects heavy showers and storms for that time frame for many spots in the area..

Ahead of this however we have another miserable hot and humid day with temps easily into the 90's.

In the wake of the front temps will be reduced into the upper 80's maybe low 90's for the weekend but it will feel much more comfortable. We will also have an upper level trough over the area..

This could cause an upper level disturbance or two which could spawn a shower or two but overall it should be a nice weekend. 

By the way earlier in the week we have a very strong cold pool aloft move in over WY and Montana. This caused rare July mountain snows! Here is that trough below out west back on Tuesday.

The result was this over 8,000ft...

Pretty cool!

Enjoy the weekend guys. 

Monday, July 27, 2015

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Showers Linger Today, Heat Returns Mid-Week

Good morning all you off season loyal followers. Its no secret this blog really gets going during the colder months but I have noticed an uptrend in page visits every "off-season" since I started this three years ago. 

We have another typical (in some cases boring) summer week ahead of us. Last night a frontal boundary moved over the area and will continue to move through the area today. This will result in some widely scattered showers and storms throughout the day for some but not all areas. 

Moving into Tuesday and Wednesday high pressure begins to build back in and the temperatures will increase back into the high 80's and lowers 90's. Dew points will also be rising which means it will be humid as well. You can see the ridge of high pressure building in below for mid-week..

Which naturally brings in a southerly flow (warm moist air) and above average temps..

Lets take a look at Thursday and i will point out a few things..

Above is a dew point temperature map or in other words the temperature at which water condenses. The higher the dew point the more moisture that is in the air. This is what makes it feel hot and sticky. Notice however a sharp decline in those dew point temps out to the west where I drew that line. That represents a cold front. One way to recognize a front is to look for this change in dew points since cold front bring in colder and DRIER air hence lower dew points. As usual, they also cause unsettled weather as the colder air wedges itself under the warm air causing lift which causes showers and storms..

You can see that effect above for Thursday afternoon as showers and storms develop ahead of that approaching front Thursday afternoon. This will help usher in cooler air and result in a nice end to the work week with temperatures in the mid 80's with low humidity on Friday.

We will take a look at the weekend once we get a little closer. At this point things look very decent with the slight chance at a shower or two.

Thanks for checking in!

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Tuesday Morning: One More Day Then the Heat Breaks!

Good morning everyone. It will be another hot and humid day over the area with temperatures in the 90s with a high moisture content in the air. This makes for a miserable feel as you walk outside. Why so hot and humid? We are currently under a regime of a southerly flow of air. This means all the heat and humidity from the tropics has the chance of bleeding up into our area. To break this pattern requires a frontal passage. The good news is, that will come tonight!

When fronts pass they bring with them cooler and more importantly DRIER air. The drier air makes it feel much more tolerable even if temps are still on the high side. So to start, here is the passage of the front tonight. Expect a few showers as we head through tonight..

Now here come the key check out the dew points for the air mass that this front is going to bring in...

Dew points in the 50's tomorrow! Yes even though the actual temperature will still be in the mid to upper 80's this drier air will make it feel supreme. The dew point is just the temperature that the air would condense. The more moisture you have in the air the higher the dew point. Currently dew points have been in the 70's which is why it feels so miserable. 

High pressure then builds into the region though Saturday morning keeping the conditions consistent..

Its always nice to see a high pressure center to our west north west because it means the air flow is from the north which is naturally cooler. 

The nice weather should hold until Sunday where we might see another frontal passage which could mean more showers..

So hang in there, the finish line is in sight in terms of nice summer weather returning.  

On another note, it is no secret I am a winter weather enthusiast. As we head into Aug I am going to start to monitor seasonal trends that will ultimately lead to my Winter 2016 Forecast that comes out in October. Stay tuned for a few sneak peaks here and there as I begin to discuss the factors I will be monitoring!

Friday, July 17, 2015

Friday Weekend Weather Update: A Hot Humid Weekend Brewing

Good morning, cool calm conditions will give way to hot humid conditions as the weekend unfolds. This will be due to a warm front that lifts through the region today as the current high pressure system drifts off shore.

Today will stay on the cooler side with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to high 70's. You can see the high pressure system still close enough to our area to cause this..

As this departs, the warm humid air flows into the area tomorrow with mostly cloudy conditions Saturday and a chance at some showers. Saturday is not a washout type of day, but rather a nuisance.  

Temps will rise into the mid 80s as this humid air mass takes hold. By Sunday things will really heat up and temps will climb into the low 90's..

This heat is short lived however as a cold front then moves into the reigion early next week. This will move the humid conditions out of the area and cause temps to cool. As I have been saying this whole summer any episodes of heat are short lived and overall it should end up being a average summer temp wise. This is due to a variety of factors including the El Nino underway. As a reminder I have a detailed discussion on El Nino from a month back. You can find it on a tab on the header of this website.

Thanks for checking in, enjoy the weekend!

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Tuesday Weekly Weather Update: Showers and Storms Today into Tomorrow, Nice End to the Week

Good morning. We have another typical summer day ahead of us with a warm humid air mass that will aid in triggering heavy showers and storms later today. As always this is being triggered by a frontal system that is going to move through the area tonight. The biggest threat I see from these storms are the potential for downpours and high winds especially in the southern zones where instability will be the greatest. Here is the projected radar for later today..

You can see a low pressure center well to the west that is triggering these storms (low pressure systems cause fronts). Initially, as the warm front from this low pressure system passes this afternoon is when we see best shot for the stronger storms as seen above. Once we get into the overnight hours, the rain threat stays in tact, however the atmosphere will not be as unstable. This means any storms will not be as strong as their earlier counterparts. You can see tomorrow morning simulated below..

Tomorrow will mark the passage of the cold front with this system. Things should start to clear as the day progresses. In the wake of the cold front, we will have a cooler drier air mass to end the week. This means sunny skies with temperatures in the low 80's and maybe high 70's in some spots. The air mass is of Canadian origin so temps will be colder than normal. You can see this below..

The weekend overall should be ok. This air mass stays in place and we could see the treat of a few showers but at this point I am not too concerned. Expect mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the low to mid 80's. 

Thanks for checking in!

Thursday, July 9, 2015

Thursday Weather Update: Rain Tonight as Low Pressure Moves Along Front

Good morning everyone. As a follow up to my Tuesday post it now looks like things will get wet again tonight as a low pressure center rides a frontal boundary over our area tonight.

You can see in the image below the front that is across the region..

We are also observing a low pressure center out just west of PA..

This low will ride along the front tonight and bring heavy showers into the area..

By Friday morning this is all clear and High pressure takes control for the weekend. 

 This will produce mostly Sunny ski's with temperatures in the mid 80's though Sunday. 

Looking ahead into the longer range pattern, I do not see any big heat waves anytime soon. You can see below another trough will develop over the area next week which will keep things more on the cool side..

We will see spurts of hot days this summer, but overall I think this back and forth pattern holds for the rest of the season. A big driver of this is the water temperature profile of the northeast pacific.

That's all for now, thanks for checking in. 

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Tuesday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Warmer This Week With Shower and Storms at Times

Good morning everyone. I hope everyone had a good 4th of July holiday. For the most part the weekend was spared but we did deal with some rain on Saturday. As we head though this week most of you will notice that it will be much more hot and humid compared to last week. This is due to more southerly flow that has returned to our area as a result of more ridging in the overall pattern. Here are estimated temps for today..

Overall there will be some pop up showers today then we get a break before an approaching front later tomorrow into tomorrow night..

We will keep our eye on this front to determine if any of these storms will be severe Wednesday afternoon/night. Stay tuned for that.

In the wake of the front, things will clear by Thursday afternoon. We could see another low pressure center develop along the front but right now it looks to stay dry after Thursday morning. Expect cooler temps and calm conditions to follow through Friday. High temps in the 70's Thursday and low 80's Friday. 

Heading into the weekend things will stay calm through Saturday with sunny skis and temps in the mid 80's. Our next shot at unsettled weather arrives Sunday.

I will not that overall I think the story will continue for this summer. Warm spells being short lived and replaced by cooler conditions with unsettled weather. This is due to the large scale pattern that is more amplified than normal out in the pacific. This helps keep sustained ridging or warmer than normal temps out of our area for sustained periods of time. 

Thanks for checking in. 

Thursday, July 2, 2015

Thursday Night Holiday Weekend Weather Update: Not a Good Trend

Well, it appears now the trend is not in favor of excellent weather for this holiday weekend. As I discussed in my post earlier in the week, we are dealing with a large scale pattern supportive of unsettled weather along with a stalled front to the south of us. I explained how based on how upper air energy interacts with this front will determine if we are wet or dry. The trends in the last 24 hours have been stronger with the upper level energy thus the low pressure system is projected to develop more to the north on Saturday. This means the chance of showers and more clouds than sun.

Lets take a look..

Old GFS for Saturday..

New GFS (other models including the Euro trending north)..

This is NOT the trend I want to see 24 hours out.

Look at the difference in the "Dig" in the upper air energy projection compared to earlier runs..

Old GFS..

New GFS..

It might be hard to see but the bottom image has a sharper dig to it and that is helping bring this low pressure north more along with the stalled front. 

Here is the bottom line:

  • There is an increased chance of rain for Saturday the 4th. 
  • This threat of showers is mainly during the day not at night
  • Expect mostly cloudy conditions Saturday
  • Skies should clear by the time the fireworks go off Saturday night 
  • Sunday looks like a beautiful day 

Thanks for checking in. If anything changes in tonight model runs I will update tomorrow. Enjoy the holiday weekend!

Weekend Weather Looking Good So Far!

Weekend weather update will be live later tonight! Looks like the unsettled weather MIGHT stay south. Of course interpreting model error will be a big part of this. Currently the models keep us dry but I will evaluate how they could change.