Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion: Some Snow Possible Tonight!

Good morning everyone! Yup that's right some areas can see some flakes tonight and they very well could be the last flakes of the season. In general this will not be an accumulating snow event unless you live in the interior above 700ft. Otherwise expect rain later today with some snow possible tonight when the sun goes down. The snow will not stick unless you are at that high elevation.

Since this is prob the last snow we see I had to make a map for old times sake..


Here is a good model projection of precip type for tonight at 8pm


This is a classic Alberta clipper that dives in from Canada. These types of systems never give big snowfall unless they redevelop off the coast and get ocean enhancement. This clipper will not do that.

I currently live at about 400ft in Morristown, NJ. During systems like this  I always like to drive a few miles up the road to 1000ft to see the differences in precip type. It is not uncommon for it to be raining here when it snows up there with systems like this. This is all due to a warm surface layer due to the daytime heating of the late March sun. The increase in elevation relaxes that heating just enough to let the layer of air near the surface support the snow. 

Moving on, this weekend I expect a rain storm for most areas..



This is from Friday night into Saturday. I will be in northern Vermont skiing so I am preying this will happen for one last great ski weekend. 

Thanks for checking in guys, I will have some observations tonight when this clipper is underway. 

1 comment:

  1. How 'bout that, March went out with some lambs wool -- that's what the 3/8 inch or so of snow looked like this AM on the grass here in Montclair, at 300 ft altitude. The little disturbance last night passed by a bit earlier than anticipated (mostly over the ocean by 8 pm), looked to me like it went a little farther south than modeled. From the radar view, Central NJ looked like it got most of the precip, So, it's pretty much goodbye to the winter of 14-15, and much respect -- that was a winter with a real attitude. Although, I see that it could be down around 32f/0c on Easter Sunday am, so maybe one last reminder from it, although it will probably be dry. The big thing now appears to be the behind-schedule El Nino finally coming on-line in the south Pacific. So maybe we get a radical split jet stream over the US with much storm activity brewing in the south and south-central states. It will be interesting to see if that flow brings any of those storms close enough to us along the Atlantic coast. Willy, does that synch with your forecasts of a stormy spring season? Hey, I'd like to see some strong t-storms. We haven't had a good end-of-the-world thunderstorm anywhere near Essex County in years. Haven't seen any hail since who knows when. But then again, don't want to see anyone get hurt. Given how little t-storm activity we've had in the past 3 or 4 years, the public may be a bit lax and thus not always take the proper precautions. Hope that the government and media will issue a lot of reminders and warning precautions if a stormy summer pattern does develop. And hopefully Willy will keep us up to date on that too. I can see how most everyone (aside from wx nuts) could be taken by surprise after such a long cold winter. Jim G

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