Thursday, March 19, 2015

Thursday Morning: The Final Forecast for Friday's Snow Event

As always this is my final forecast that I like to release 24 hrs before the start of the event. Yes if absolutely necessary I will tweak it but the goal is not to have to do that. I actually made no changes to the preliminary map I made yesterday morning, I really like what I have. This storm will start tomorrow morning and start to pick up in intensity as we get to late in the morning into early afternoon. The best chances for 5" and even locally more accumulations are in NNJ above 700ft. Otherwise the 3-5" should work out well. Depending on your elevation will determine how much effects the roadways (temps will be hovering right around freezing for lower elevation areas). Down further south expect a nice front end thump of snow but there should be some mixing issues as we get into the afternoon which is why the amounts are lower down there. 

I will do a video forecast tonight with the play by play.


3 comments:

  1. Weatherwilly, Weather Channel has 5-8 inches of snow for my area. Any reason why you think their totals are a little bit higher?

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    1. The only way I see someone getting 5+ is at 1000ft in NW NJ..TWC is very erratic with their snow forecasts they change frequently and sometimes I ask myself where they get the data to make the forecast. Remember the surface will not be very cold so at lower elevations it will be tougher to stick to the roads. I would be very suprised if we see widespread 5-8 but hey you never know.

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  2. Evening model runs look to be on track for 3 to 6 inch range over Nor NJ 'burbs. GFS is a bit farther north (closer to 6 in), NAM and Canadian farther south (closer to 4 in). Just a matter of maybe 50 or 60 miles in latitude of storm track. We shall find out tomorrow. Jim G

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