Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Preliminary Forecast for Thursday's Storm

Good morning. I am going to get right to the point today. If you want the commentary yesterday's posts and video are full of it. I am going with a solution that is slightly more north of most model guidance but south of  NAM model guidance. Here is what my Preliminary thoughts are on Thursday's system. However, I think its important to try to actually forecast a storm not wait until 24 hours before the event. Sure things could change but that's why I use the word preliminary. I will update by tomorrow night if necessary. Folks further south you are not out of this I just am trying to anticipate model shifts. Snow should break out in most areas Thursday morning and last until the evening hours. Snow might start as rain or mixed precip in the southern zones which is why accumulations are less there. 

This storm will be impacted by the storm that will pass through our area later today. The storm later today will have a quick burst of snow for Central NJ into New England followed by ice and freezing rain. Expect up to a couple of inches in northern counties tonight before the changeover. 

That's all for now, be careful out there tonight and stay tuned for further updates to my forecast for Thursday's storm.


  1. Hmmm, my .02 FWIW -- still looks like a tricky set-up. NAM appears to have been quite variable over the past 24 hours, went north with more rain for a while, now (06Z Wed) seems south and 8 or more inches of snow. NAO forecasts today are divergent -- one looks for a higher/stronger + on Thursday, another looks for weaker/lower + reading. Lots of low pressure to the N and NE. An 8 inch snow scenario for Morris/Essex counties seems possible, but the 3 inch very wet (or ICE STORM) theory may also still be within reason, if a stronger ocean heat ridge deflects the jet-propelled cold air/precip down into the low pressure valleys up north, a bit quicker and a bit further north than anticipated. Just saying, even at 36-48 hours out, there might still be a fairly high level of uncertainty here and a fairly wide range of possibilities. But again, just my rough-cut SWAG, I'm no expert on this; just an interested by-stander getting ready for whatever! Snow shovel in hand. Jim G

    1. Agreed, this will be a tricky forecast which is why I tried to make a map that anticipates where this storm is going, not where models currently show it. I think by tonight we get a good picture of what will happen here. I do not support a S Jersey big snow event. I think C NJ is right on edge and it going into CT and maybe southern Mass then sharp cutoff. We will see!

  2. More Wed AM weather-SWAG !! The playbook is more-or-less set I gather, but total precip and types are still at issue. Doesn't look like an unanticipated northward bounce is in the cards (as I mumbled about yesterday), that is soooooo last month! But still, generally a pretty + NAO, and not much high pressure to the north and west. 06Z GFS call is for fast zonal flows with the storm further south-east than NAM and CMC (and Euro, presumably). Change to snow happens just after midnight, like the other runs, but mostly winds-up by 8 am, leaving snow totals closer to 3 inches than 8 inches. Other models seem a bit slower and more north-west, with snow continuing well into Thurs afternoon. So, will be interesting to see if GFS sticks by its guns here, and if so, does it repeat Jan 27? Or does it go back to being OK but still-not-quite-ready-for-prime-time. Shovel remains in hand. And whatever we get, shovel it quick, as all models agree on another dip below 10 degrees by early Friday AM! A really interesting winter storm season! Jim G

  3. CORRECTION -- not much high pressure to the north and EAST. Like, Atlantic Ocean, Greenland. Sorry. Jim G