Monday, March 9, 2015

Monday Night Pattern Update: All Signs Point to Colder and Stormier Second Half of March

Video below goes into finer detail on why I believe we are not finished with cold and stormy weather this winter. It is a little longer (6 min) than normal but there is a lot to talk about for anyone who is interested. Here are the takeaways:


  • After the mild weather this week the pattern changes to a winter like set up for the last two weeks of March into early April
    • This is backed up by support from all major models, pacific sea surface temperatures, trends in the stratosphere and the MJO
  • It is important to note that it is March, so averages are higher than February which means below normal is not as cold.
    •  Consequently,I do not expect anyone to see high temperatures near NYC in the teens this month
  • However, things should still get cold enough for a snow threat before it is all said and done for some areas.
  • Baltimore/Washington and Philadelphia I think you are done with snow. 
  • Even for NYC it will be a close call but just inland and up into New England it's game on. 
  • For any skiers out there, ski season should extend well into April this year.
  • If I had to target a period for a storm to POTENTIALLY develop it would be from the 19th to 24th. 


Note: In the video I mentioned the word typhoon by mistake when talking about weather near Japan. There is no typhoon, I meant storm system. 



4 comments:

  1. Great video, thanks. Sounds like a 'perfect storm' for cold and snow -- neg EPO, pos PNA, neg AO, neg NAO, and MJO back in phase 7. Most of this winter (or the real part of it from late Jan to early March) was driven by EPO, PNA and MJO. It's amazing how that Pacific effect muscled aside the polar vortex and North Atlantic dynamics, and drove our very cold and fairly snowy weather here in the northeast. Now, ironically, we are going to get all of these cold/snow drivers in harmony for maybe a half month or so, right in time for the first day of Spring. Had this happened in mid-January, yikes, I don't want to think about it; like, Siberia ! (Well, Minneapolis, anyway.) Good shot at total snowfall hitting 75% of last year, 80% not impossible either. A little different than 2014, but still a winter to remember. Jim G

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  2. I'm really hoping for one more storm. Everything is in line now we just need to leave it up to the winter God's to make it happen. From there I will welcome spring with open arms.

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  3. First, I recently followed you on twitter and you're now in the mix of people I read for wx info. The concept for your blog is excellent. Huge amounts of raw data is available to the public today that wasn't even five years ago.

    Nonetheless, as a fellow NNJ resident, I'm pulling for the models to shift in the next few days and the warmth to continue.

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    1. Thank You-I appreciate it! However this turns out, it will be fun to track considering we at least got a shot here.

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